Sunday, February 3, 2008

Spotlight on: NL West

Well, it's a big day. The Patriots and Giants are battling today in Arizona so I'm sure everyone is just waiting for my predictions about... the NL West.

Speaking of Arizona, the D-backs are being talked about as one of the early favorites to come out of the NL this year. They currently hold the division lead at 4-1. The Salem Sacrifices are close behind at 3-2, the L.A. Dodgers are at 2-3, and the Boise Buckskins are in the cellar at 1-4. Of course it's still early, so let's dissect the teams starting with the offenses. This is maybe the division in the NL with the most offense.

-We'll start in the desert where the Diamondbacks have put together an offense that could possibly rival Montreal with its depth. If Hernandez and Meng can get on base, there are plenty of bats behind them in C Willis Petrov, LF Osvaldo Johnson, 1B Eddie Greer, 2B King Greeley, and 3B Vic Blanco. SS Andres Calderon is solid on defense but will also provide his share of offense.
- The Dodgers are going to be tough to predict- on paper they would have the second best offense but they are going to need to stay healthy in order for that to happen. The two big question marks are the 1 and 2 hitters, LF Charles Tomko and CF Lynn Abernathy. They have a lot of potential but no one really knows for sure if they can stay off the DL. If they do, L.A. could score a lot of runs, with C Ruben Hernandez, 2B Marc Olson, and 1B Abdullah Huff driving in Tomko and Abernathy.
- Salem is another offense that could go either way. They have some raw athletes in the beginning of their lineup but I'm not sure they can get on base enough. If this was an Olympic 4 * 100 meter relay, I'd feel great about running out 1B Jorge Tejera, 2B Frank Grant, RF Chip Young, and CF Nate Cox for our country- I think we'd at least win bronze. Out of those 4, however, Cox is really the only polished hitter. 3B Max Clifton and LF Travis Ryan are solid in the 5 and 6 spots.
- Boise doesn't quite have the explosive potential of the other teams in the division, but they will not be devoid of offense. 2B Alex (don't call me John) McCain leads off and should be solid in that role. 3B Cap Herrera may only be 22, but he is a future superstar and will contribute right away. He will be supported in the lineup bu LF Yank Lohse. Down at the bottom is C Sean Canseco, who will provide a bit of offense but his most important role is to help and handle the pitching staff; he will do this quite well.

Speaking of the pitching staffs, let's examine the arms race in the wild west.

- I'll start with Salem over Arizona for the same reason I took Cincinnati over Arizona- the similarities are eerie. Salem, like Cincinnati, has two big-time starters and question marks behind it. Arizona is built a lot like Montreal- no big time starters but better depth. One could argue either way. Salem has David Dunwoody, the best starter in this division and a legitimate ace. Dan Pederson is going to be very solid behind him. Salem could end up competing for the last wild card spot and might look to deal for some pitching at some point, as I'm not sold on George Tipton as a starter and could use some help for Kevin Nomo as the closer.
- Arizona has to be next, with 4 solid, if unspectacular, starters in Hippolito Pujols, Vin Bautista, Kane Grahe, and Brandon Small. The biggest question mark with the staff may not even be anyone behind the plate- it may be if Petrov can handle the staff and call the right pitches. Vic Trevino will be the closer and isn't a bad option. Losing B.C. Bennett for the year to elbow surgery is a blow to the staff.
- L.A. is going to struggle to get hitters out this year. 4th starter Carlos Bennett is really the only starter who fits his role well. He seems like a guy who could win about 10 games if the offense clicks (see above). Other than that the Dodgers have very little in the cupboard; Vince Costello is not an ace and the rest of the staff is shaky as well. Bo Hatfield is quite capable in the closer role but the first 8 innings may make him a spectator more than he would like.
- And yet, the Dodgers finish 3rd in this division in pitching. Boise's manager is going to regret playing in an offensvie park, as they will give up a ton of runs. Kelly Downs is a solid pitcher and can do a decent job, but has little to no help. The 2nd and 3rd starters are Glendon Governale and Dick Raines, who should find the plate about as often as Wile E. Coyote catches the Roadrunner. Between these two, 4th starter Heath Caufield, and part-time closer Marty Creek, Sean Canseco will be in great shape chasing balls going to the backstop this year. Jim Bell is the other closer.

Predictions (Don't hold me to any of this):

1. Arizona comes out of this division- too much offense and a solid rotation. It would, however, to see how they would match up with a team like Cincinnati who possibly could derail their WS hopes in a short series with Robinson and Christians. Could their offense get to those guys? It would be fun to watch if it did happen.
2. Salem may not have enough pitching to make the wild-card, but are they really that much worse than teams like Trenton, Atlanta, Chicago, or anyone in the south? I've got Cincinnati just about penned into the 5 spot (if they can't overtake Montreal), and this last spot is WIDE open.
3. The Diamondbacks finish in the top 2 in runs in the NL.
4. Boise's pitching staff leads the league in walks.

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