Monday, August 31, 2009

Dirtbags bring back Hunter

Slugger to play backup role with team

The Fargo Dirtbags were set to cut ties with slugging catcher/first baseman Arnold Hunter after last season. Hunter was to become a Type A free agent and the plan from Fargo's standpoint was to let him go, collect compensation picks from the team that signs him, and hope that guys like 30-year-old rookie Ricardo Martinez could at least be competent in his absence. But things didn't quite work out that way.

Seeking a multi-year, multi-million dollar contract, Hunter remained unsigned throughout the offseason and into the regular season. Fargo thought for sure once Hunter's demands dropped below a one-year, $1 million deal that a team would scoop him up, but it never happened. Teams were just unwilling to part with a draft pick for a 31-year-old with a 49 health rating and a 62 durability rating. So the Dirtbags, knowing a bargain when they see one, decided to re-sign Hunter to a one year contract worth just under $731,000.

Martinez has been far more than the Dirtbags could have ever hoped for and isn't likely to lose much playing time to Hunter anytime soon. Hunter looks like he'll only face left-handed pitchers and may likely only see those at bats as a starter during inter-league games as a DH. He'll probably get a few at bats at catcher as well, as the Dirtbags grow weary of Wiki Mateo's lack of a bat, but Juan Flores is the starter there and will take all of the at bats his shaky durability allows.

The signing comes down to the fact that the Fargo didn't want to lose Hunter for nothing. With the amateur draft in less than a week, the Dirtbags would have lost Hunter with no compensation should a team have signed him after the draft, which was highly likely to happen. Now, Fargo can claim one of the best benches in the National League and a monster bat that could very well make a difference down the stretch.

Arnold Hunter
Fargo
Dirtbags
Age: 31B/T: R/R
Born: Metamora, IL
Position(s): C/1B
View Hardball Dynasty Profile

Take 5: Draft edition

Last time we looked at aginor's 5 favorite first round picks. This time, we look at the other end:

Who were aginor's 5 least favorite 1st round picks and how have they done?

1. Tomas Sierra, P, Cincinnati (now Philadelphia), #21

Aginor's take: Here is a pick that…. well frankly put, ain’t 1st rnd material IMO. He definitely will not be a starter (Stamina is below starter level & only 2 good pitches). Possible Long Relief, but I think he’ll be most useful in a set up role. He’s got the tools for that, if you keep his pitch count to a “set up” pitcher level. I don’t see him as a closer. So a setup guy in the first round? I’m not saying he will not be a ML pitcher, I think he can be; but a first round pick… nope.

So far: He's been at AAA for two full seasons and parts of two others that just about add up to a full season. So essentially he's been at AAA for three straight seasons. He's 26 and has yet to see Citizen's Bank Park without a ticket; he's yet to throw a big league pitch. Time is definitely running out on his career.


2. Dwayne Malloy, P, Fargo, #18

Aginor's take: If the Dirtbags can sign Dwayne, they’ll have a solid potential ML pitcher. Just what kind is a question. While, he should develop great splits, good control etc; but he has only 3 pitches and one is well below average in potential. The other two are average at best for ML starter (as his #2 & #3 pitches) but he doesn’t have a “go to” pitch. I see bullpen in the future here, both long & short are definite possibilities here. Unless it’s a closer, I don’t feel bullpen material is worthy of a 1st rounder.

So far: Dwayne was dealt to Louisville in season 3, where he currently plays. He's on the big league staff as a middling long relief guy. I doubt this is what his college coaches had in mind for him coming out of school.


3. Benny McDonald, SS, Milwaukee, #30

Aginor's take: Benny is not shortstop material, glove just wouldn’t cut it at the ML level. Even 2b is marginal, though his range could make up for it; 3B however is a possibility for sure. Though his bat isn’t quite what you’d want there. Sure he’ll have decent power but his splits are “average”, eye is only slightly above “average” and his contact rating is below “average”. I may be wrong on this one but I see him as future bench material, ML for sure but a utility guy.

So far: Has yet to make his major league debut, failing to crack what has been a stacked lineup in Milwaukee. To help make aginor's first point, he's put up the following error totals in his last three full minor league seasons: 77, 57, 62. Milwaukee has to find another position for him. In conclusion, it's very hard to say how this pick has turned out, because it really hasn't turned out yet.


4. Red Rose, SS, Louisville, #31

Aginor's take: With this one, I’d be repeating what I said with Benny above. Though Red should be a better overall defensive player than Benny; his bat will not be as good. He’ll develop decent splits and OK power; what hurts is his contact will be average at best and his eye will be well below that average mark. Again, I see ML Utility material here. I didn’t say this above; bench guys aren’t quite what you’re looking for with your 1st round pick.

So far: Exactly as aginor predicted. He's a role player on the Legends, coming in as a defensive replacement or a pinch runner, but not seeing full-time duty. I'd have to agree with aginor that you probably expect a little more than a utility-type player with a first round pick.


There's a choice for the last spot, so let's do aginor a favor:

5. Bryan Christiansen, LF, New Orleans, #22

Aginor's take: This is a pick I’d like to follow (if signed) and see what kind of hitter he becomes. Bryan’s defensive abilities will be the proto-typical COF. He’ll have great contact rating, hit for power and has an above average eye. BUT his splits will be well below the average. So can a guy with splits this low hit ML pitching?? I don’t know to tell the truth, so it will be interesting to see. MY guess…. A Fred McGriff type hitter – Feast or Famine. Though, his speed and base running ability might make him a candidate for the 40/40 club. Either way, I’m curious to see if he can be ML hitter.

So far: Hard to say. This is going to be his first full season in the majors- he got held up at AAA. He's already 26, so he's not going to improve by leaps and bounds anymore. He hit .256 in almost 400 ABs last season, with 22 HRs and 26 steals, so he does obviously has the talent. He's off to a brutal start so far, hitting just .196 with 2 homers.

Take 5: Draft edition

As we approach the 7th season's draft, we look back 5 seasons to gauge how some of the picks panned out.

Who were aginor's 5 favorite picks from the Season 2 draft and how have they turned out so far?

1. Sam Brumfield, C, Memphis (now Austin), #15

Aginor's take: Here is the BEST of a deep crop of solid all around catchers that were available in this draft (see rest in the supplement). Sam should become perennial ALL STAR. He’s got the potential to hit for a good average (.280s maybe better) and with decent power. ALSO, he will have a solid arm and pitch calling ability (70+). But what puts this guy over the top…his durability AND health, two areas catchers are usually a little weak. Sam could play over 150 games a season! That is unheard of in HBD. So IMO, while the first 3 picks are great, this is the pick of the draft. Oh …. you want a drawback; OK… he has slightly below average speed on the bases for a catcher! YEA RIGHT, AS IF THAT REALLY MATTERS.

So far: Had a phenominal minor league career and had a nice, if not All-Star caliber, rookie season in the majors. Aginor thought he could hit .280- that's still possible, although he only hit .247 his rookie season. But he's still got room to grow. I don't think Austin fans regret the choice one bit.


2. Jim Clyburn, RP, Arizona (now Cheyenne), #17

Aginor's take: Jim is the third potential closer taken in the 1st round. While a little unusual to see this many top quality potential closers in a draft, not really all that rare. And yep Jim has the potential to be a shutdown guy, no doubt about that in the least. Now, it may take him a while to get there but once ready, the D-Backs will have themselves an All Star closer on their hands.

So far: Agnor was right that it would take Jim awhile to get to the majors- this is now his rookie season. As far as being a shutdown closer, it hasn't happened right away (like, say, 13th pick in the same draft Garry Wright). He's already blown 4 of his first 10 save opportunities and at press time has an ERA over 12. Of course, the first quarter of a guy's rookie season is not nearly enough to judge a career. Let's say the jury is still out.


3. Paul Schwartz, P, Vancouver (now Seattle), #8

Aginor's take: The second pitcher taken in the draft isn’t an Ace Starter, hmmmm... BUT he’s got the potential to be a “Lights Out” closer. One of the three that were taken in the first round. Finding a solid closer is one of the holy grails of HBD. Is Schwartz IT? Time will tell, but I’d say he’s got a REALLY good chance to be IT.

So far: Traded twice his first full season in the minors, he eventually found his way to Cheyenne's system, and he's been in the majors 3 full seasons already. He had a dynamite season setting up last season, pitching a whopping 143 innings at a 3.27 ERA and striking out almost a batter per inning. This season he was made the closer and has been a little shaky, with an ER A over 5 and blowing 5 of 21 opportunities.

(OK, I'm going to cheat a little. Since aginor had 6 guys rated 9.5 or higher and these next two were compared to each other, I'm going to lump them together).


4. Jordan Newfield, SS, Salt Lake City, #2 and Neifi McBride, SS, Chicago, #3

Aginor's take: Well the Shakers got a real solid SS in Jordan. He should be .300 hitter and should hit 30-40 long flies once he hits his potential. Only two small knocks here, Batting Eye and Range (you’d like 80+ as SS); still again in overall scheme… neither are big deals with this kids other potential ratings. I think teams in the NL are going be sorry Jordan is in Salt Lake.

Neifi and Jordan were definitely the 2 best Shortstops available in the draft (though Hamill & Cook are nothing to sneeze at for sure). McBride is the slightly better fielder of the two and is slightly less the hitter but…realistically that’s splitting hairs. Once signed, the Cubs will have a possible Gold Glove SS for the future. A word caution with Neifi, even though his overall rating is 70+, start him no higher than A Ball. Cubs should give this kid time to develop into the player he should be, otherwise….. A look into the crystal ball sees Neifi & Jordan both playing SS for NL All Star team.

So far: I'd have to agree with aginor's assessment of Newfield. He's already shown he can hit .300 with around 30 homers, and the rest of the NL is sorry he's in Salt Lake City. He's had 3 full seasons in the majors and has indeed been to an All-Star game. McBride has been a little different. He ended up moving over to 2B for the Tamers, so perhaps the perception coming out of school that he was the better defender hasn't held up. In his best season he hit .311, so he's a valuable member of the Chicago squad. He's yet to be invited to the Mid-Summer Classic.

5. Turner Dolan, CF, Kansas City (now Scranton)

Aginor's take: In Turner (if signed) the Comets will have themselves a potential solid all-around CF. His defensive potential is solid, even could content(sic) for a Gold Glove or two. He should be a .320+ hitter, with 20+ HR and 30+ SBs. A downside (this is being picky) Arm Strength is below what you want ML CF; that’s why this one isn’t a 10/10. Other than that… a great first overall pick goes to the Comets.

So far: In this, his rookie season, he appears to be having the type of season aginor predicted, minus the stolen bases. He's been a little shaky at times in the field, but if you can get a good CF and leadoff-type guy, it's always good to have.

Sunday, August 30, 2009

Around the AL at the Quarter Pole

Notes and musings from our AL reporter Hugo First about what he's seen over the first 41 games:


- Who's been the best team so far? Hard to say. Seattle, St. Louis, and Jackson all lead their division at 26-15. If I had to pick one so far, I'd take Seattle, with the other two not far behind. All three are playing quality ball and I don't see any reason they can't keep it up.

- Quite a few surprise teams in the AL thus far; Syracuse, Oklahoma City, Buffalo, and New York are all above .500 and the last three would make the playoffs if they started today. I'm not sure these teams can keep it up, but if Jay Guiel and Heath Caufield continue to pitch at a Cy-Young candidate level, maybe OKC can stay in the race until the end.

- Monterrey would have to be the biggest disappointment. They're 16-25, ten games back of Jackson. Just let me throw some starters' ERAs at you: Albert Gonzalez, 5.75; Johnnie Reagan, 5.70; Jocko Keats, 6.89; Luther Brush, 7.33. Need I say more?

- Boston is on pace to score 988 runs, so if they keep this pace up, they could threaten 1000 runs. Unfortunately, they're on pace to give up over 1000 (1027, to be exact).

- Louisville is below .500, but I still think they're the best team in that division and they'll be on top when it's all said and done.

- Milwaukee has been much better as of late, winning 12 of their last 18 to get back above .500. They're still a threat to win another AL North title.

- From the "Who would have picked it before the season started?" department, the top three teams in terms of team ERA: Oklahoma City, Seattle, Anaheim. If I had to predict before the season, I'd probably get 1 out of 3.

- Charlotte is the worst team in the league so far at 13-28, or a winning percentage of .317. Their expected winning percentage based on runs scored and allowed: .316.

- Luis Martinez of Milwaukee is the first quarter MVP, although it doesn't look like he's a threat to go 40-40 again, as he hasn't stolen a base in his last 17 games.

- Graham Costello of Milwaukee would get the Cy Young if it was handed out today, although he'd have fairly good competition. He's 5-0 with a 2.01 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. But the most impressive stat- 56 strikeouts and only 5 walks: a ratio of 11.2 to 1. By comparison, the two guys behind him in ERA (the aforementioned Caufield and Anaheim's Andy Ramsey) both have K/BB ratios of less than 2 to 1.

- New York's Mateo James has struck out 56 times already, which puts him on pace for 221 for the season (which would beat the ML record of 191 by a wide margin). What's more impressive about this is that he's done it in only 139 ABs, which means that for every 5 at-bats, he strikes out twice. Scranton's Chief Pearson has struck out 49 times, which also puts him on pace for more than 191.

Around the NL at the Quarter Pole

Our intrepid NL reporter Seymour Duless checks in after 40 games for his observations:

- After 20 games it looked like it was Atlanta and Fargo in one category, and then there was everyone else. Atlanta has maintained that level; Fargo's been solid but not at that spectacular level they were playing at in the last 20 games. Atlanta is clearly the best team in this league right now.

- Fargo is probably #2 right now, although Salt Lake City and Trenton have the same record and are looking pretty good so far. Interesting difference in styles; Fargo has the best ERA in the NL outside of Atlanta, while Salt Lake City and Trenton are 1-2 in runs scored.

- The surprise of the first 40 games has to be Austin. They're 17-8 in their last 25 games and are currently sitting atop the NL South, one game better than Houston. Jimmie Williams has made a huge difference in their lineup and Ed Allen is pitching way over his head right now. Allen's greatness may not continue and the bullpen is shaky, but Austin fans are still enjoying life right now.

- Trenton has to hate playing in the NL East. They have little chance of catching Atlanta, but would be in a good fight in any other division. They're a NL best 9-1 in one run games and they're the only team to have 3 guys who've scored more than 30 runs (Watty Miller, Cap Herrera, Bret King).

- Chicago has too many key players struggling right now. Bernie Soriano is hitting .194, Ryan Snyder is hitting .218, and Neifi McBride is hitting .232. As for their starters, they're not much better; Marty Lane is 1-4 with a 5.23 ERA and no starter has an ERA under 4.

- Why does San Juan have the 2nd highest payroll in baseball and the worst record in the NL? 3/5 of their rotation (Jerry Terry, Charlie White, Benny Alarcon) combine to pitch at a 6.26 ERA. Which is a shame, as Hipolito Pujols is pitching a lot like he did before that catastrophic elbow injury in Season 1- this is the closest he's been to his old self since the surgery.

- After 20 games, it looked like Fargo LF Ricardo Martinez would run away with the Rookie of the Year Award. But Salem 3B Juan Valdes and Atlanta C Odalis Lopez are both right on his heels now.

- From the "Why did I sign up for this?" category, Harry Lee of Philadelphia is pitching to a 3.31 ERA, has a WHIP under 1, and an OBP of less than .200. He's outpitched fellow ace Bernie Robinson thus far. His reward: a 1-6 record.

- I've still got Houston's Monte Duvall as the front-runner for the MVP. Of course, it's only 1/4 of the way through, so it's too early to tell what's going to happen. But Duvall has a track record; it's possible he can keep up a pace at least close to this. By the way, he's on pace to hit 88 homers, which would break teammate Bob Koplove's single-season record of 69 homers.

- If I had to give out the Cy Young award right now, I'd take Fargo's Sammy Pierce just over Salem's Dave Dunwoody. Where would Salem be without Dunwoody?

- It probably won't keep up, but it should still be noted: Austin's William Saitou is on pace for 152 stolen bases this season. If he keeps getting on base, he could threaten Justin Hernandez's 134 steals in Season 3, The Bigs record.