Saturday, November 7, 2009

NL North Preview for Season 8

Last season's NL North "race" was more like Secretariat against Mr. Ed. Fargo won the division by winnig 102 games- no other team in the division was above .500. Can Toronto, Chicago, or Philadelphia at least give the Dirtbags some competition?

Offense

Let's start this one in Fargo, who has finally shed the reputation of having great pitching and no hitting. They scored the 2nd most runs in the entire NL last season, with 5 players hitting over 30 homers- they'll all return. 3B David Rushford is the lynchpin of this offense, but he's got help in SS Tomas DeJesus, RF William Bolling, LF Alex Lim, and surprising 1B Ricardo Martinez. CF Stan Peterson is the table setter for the big bats.

Chicago (9th last season) checks in next- they're a little shorter on offensive firepower than they used to be. 3B Sean Simpson is still a superstar, but he hit below .300 for the first time in his career. RF Bernie Soriano is the only other returning player (besides Simpson) to hit over 17 homers. 2B Neifi McBride did score 98 runs in front of the big bats, but losing LF Osvaldo Johnson at the end of last season (traded to Seattle) hurts the offense.

Kansas City (11th last season) is going to try and work a couple of rookies into key positions in the lineup. SS Gustavo Contreras (who may be a year away from being a solid major league contributor) and LF Fernando Ibanez will try to help jumpstart a struggling KC offense. Those two will join OF Kevin Yamakazi to provide some help to a lineup that had two regulars with OBPs under .300 last season and stole just 32 bases all season.

Philadelphia (16th last season) may very well be led by a rookie this season. 2B Brian Sweeney is a talented young infielder who ripped up AAA last season, but he'll be joining an offense that finished last in the NL in runs, hits, doubles, home runs, batting average, on base average, slugging percentage, and struck out the most. They rely on speed- 6 guys stole at least 16 bases last season. Problem is, half of them had OBPs under .300 and none had an on-base percentage higher than .328.


Pitching

Fargo (last season- 3rd in NL) still has the brand names to be in contention every single season. Javier Henriquez won his third consecutive Cy Young award (fourth overall ) and is still only 28 (it only seems like he's been around forever, especially to NL hitters). One could argue that Sammy Pierce was every bit as good as Henriquez last season, and midseason pickup Orber Marin and veteran Manny Christians give Fargo depth in the rotation. The bullpen is also so deep it could afford to lose Chris Siddall to free agency- they still have closer Bert Price and setup man Kevin Li. They also picked up Chris Jennings from Trenton to essentially replace Siddall.

Kansas City (last season- 7th in NL) rode a top half pitching staff to a second place finish in the division. The question is: can they repeat it? Rob Cather was the big surprise last season, going 15-6 for a below .500 team. Jeremi Gant and Hipolito Santana both pitched in double digit wins (they did have losing records). They'll add rookie Ozzie Acker to the mix and see if they can get another good season out of the rotation. In the bullpen, an unnamed source in the organization says the manager is leaning toward giving Mark Ott the closer's role over incumbent Cody Williamson, who only blew four saves but gave up 64 hits in less than 50 innings. Heath Rollins was very good last season.

Philadelphia (last season- 15th in NL) made a big free-agent signing last season with Harry Lee, and they did it again. They're going to gamble on the right elbow of Albert Herzog, late of the Louisville Legends, who missed most of last season after having Tommy John surgery. He'll join Lee and long-time ace Bernard Robinson to make a fairly solid top three. Turner Darr is way overpaid, but he now slides into the #4 spot, which is more fitting for him. Kid Johnstone had a decent season as the closer (he didn't get too many chances). Kenny Holmes is probably the best setup option, which isn't saying much.

Chicago (last season- 12th in NL) has issues in the rotation. Babe Broadhurst was very solid at 12-12, but he posted the fewest wins for his career (tied) and the highest ERA of his career. The sharp dropoff is a concern this late in Babe's career (he's 36)- if Chicago fans are worried he's going to fall off the proverbial cliff, they may have good reason to fear. No other Chicago starter posted double digit wins. Slash Ruffin was very good (6-5, 2.75) in half a season and should get a full-time gig this season. Willie Williams and Orber Halter are middling starters who probably can't pitch every 5 days anyway. Kenneth Graves may be struggling due in part to lack of a defined role, but he's got too much talent to post a 4-12 record with a 4.75 ERA. Graham Rivera seems to have the edge over Eduardo Moya for the closer's role.


Predictions:

1. Fargo in another runaway. They've got way too much for the rest of the division.
2. I think Chicago is going to find a way to place second. I don't think they're done configuring their roster. But unless they somehow quite a few big-time players, I don't see them challenging for a playoff spot. I just don't think they're as bad as they were last season, although their roster seems to indicate they are.
3. Kansas City should be close to second. They're still building and trying a slow approach. Time will tell if they have the right pieces.
4. Philadelphia will be last again. Their starting pitching will keep them in a lot of games this season. Their offense will be the reason they lose those games.
5. If you don't already, you'll probably know the name Slash Ruffin by the end of the season. I see him building off his 1/2 season into something big.
6. I'd nominate Yamakazi as the most likely to be dealt to a contender.

NL East Preview for Season 8

Wow, hard to believe it's been seven full seasons of great baseball here in The Bigs, the best league in all of HBD. Last season was something new, as we saw our first two-time champion in the Atlanta Bandits, who have pulled it off back-to-back. Can they 3-peat? Can Trenton, who threatened them late in the season and then took them to the brink in the playoffs, overtake them this season? Is this the season a better Washington team makes some noise? Do southern Virginia baseball fans have hope after a tough Season 7 in Norfolk?

Note: All offensive team rankings are by runs scored. All pitching rankings are by ERA.

Offense

- We'll start in Trenton. Their offense made a quantum leap, going from 13th the previous season all the way to 4th and they should be even better this season. OF/3B Calvin Chang, long an MVP candidate, makes his way to New Jersey from San Juan to join 2B Cap Herrera, 1B Stephen Mills, C Vasco Lopez, LF Magglio Perez, and 3B Enrique Park to form a long and dangerous middle of the order. CF Watty Miller had a very good season in the leadoff spot (.331-20-61). The only question mark may be speed- Bret King was the only stolen base threat and he was just traded to Houston.

- Atlanta was inconsistent offensively and it may happen again- they finished 14th and still have some holes. They've got offensive talent, but only 1B Stan Starr and 3B Albie Torres seemed able to drive in runs consistently. RF Ryan Snyder, C Odalis Perez, and CF Paul Turnbow all have offensive talent- if they realize it, this is a viable offense. If not, they could struggle again.

- Washington scored the 13th most runs in the NL last season and their leader in RBI, Eddie Greer, is still unsigned as of press time. They'll be counting mostly on the running game, as SS Marino Coronado and CF Tony Delgado both stole over 40 bases last season. However, they can't steal first- Coronado's OBP last season was .304. 2B Willis Biddle is a good all-around hitter and LF Peter Guerrero seems to be a legitimate slugger for the Blue Coats.

- Last season was all but a 1-man show in Norfolk (15th in NL last season). RF Justin Gordon had another fine season, reaching 50 homers for the first time (which was a full 30% of the team's entire total). C Tony Gutierrez was the only other Destroyer to top 20 (he had 23). OF Melvin Nakano had a nice season, scoring 80 runs and getting on base at a .381 clip. SS Ignacio Diaz was a huge disappointment, and 2B Del Hernandez would have been too if not for his 27 steals, which makes him only an ordinary disappointment.


Pitching

- As we always seem to do, we'll begin in Atlanta (1st in NL). Yes, they may have lost Eusebio and Michaels, who combined for 28 wins, but there's still plenty here. Fred Carter and Stone Curtis are legitimate top of the rotation guys, and expect rookies Santiago Perez and Kazuhiro Whang to fill in nicely to the #3 and #4 roles. The bullpen was remarkable last season, as close Tex Howell had an ERA under 2, and setup men Rob Gilmore, Emmanuel Nunez, and Trot Fultz all were sparkling in their roles.

- Trenton (4th in NL) definitely stepped onto another level when they grabbed aces David Dunwoody and Dwight Salmon from Salem last season. They became the front line starters the Traffic have never had in their history and were almost enough to take down Atlanta. Jason Sprague comes over from Houston and should be a very good #3 starter. Damion Mays, Will Piper, and York Watson all won 10 games and will battle for the #4 and #5 spots. . Another 10 game winner, Bert Pierre, is now in San Juan. The bullpen is a little iffy as well- Chris Jennings is gone and Bernie Corino was a little shaky at times but wasn't bad. Karl Coleman had an outstanding season as a setup man- it may be a little much to ask him to repeat a 9-0 record and a 3.15 ERA over 100 full innings.

- Norfolk rode ace Rod Walters to an 8th place finish in NL ERA last season. Walters won a career high 15 games for a last place Destroyers team- he and Gordon are the unquestioned leaders of the team. After Walters, the rotation is in flux- Bobby Davenport (9-13, 4.89) was the only other pitcher not to make a relief appearance. Eddie Marquis, Malcolm Lawrence, and Ricardo Gabriel were just three of the guys who tried to start with little success. Dan Young was the only person to put up good numbers outside Walters. Out of the bullpen, Del Aquino saved 33 of 37 despite giving up way too many baserunners (1.51 WHIP). Ariel Lee, a long-time quality setup arm, remains in Norfolk.

- Washington finished 13th in ERA and they should struggle, perhaps for the last time for a while (more on this later), again this season. The team leader in wins was Dixie Reynolds with 10 -he might have pitched a bit over his head last season. Alex Samuel looked very solid in 13 starts after coming up from the minors- it will be interesting to see how he fares in a full season. Bip Brock took a step back last season. The best arm on the staff probably belongs to closer Alex Javier, who saved 35 games with a WHIP under 1. Setup could be a big question. What is not in question is Washington fans are looking forward to the arrival (maybe in part this season) of what they call "The Legion of Lefties" in prospect starters Carter Leonard, John Balfour, and Barry Rader.

Predictions:

1. Hard to pick against the champs. Guess I'll have to take Atlanta by a nose. Expect Trenton to be right there with them yet again if they don't win it outright. (yes, I know that's hedging my bet a little. Deal with it.)
2. Second place team here should make the playoffs and be very dangerous. Whether it be Trenton or Atlanta, this division's wild card team could end up winning the pennant in the end.
3. Washington won 74 games last season- I'll give them 3rd at about the same win total. They've come quite a way in the last few seasons, but I think this season is about treading water until the big arms in the minors are ready.
4. Norfolk is in full rebuilding mode. I see them still behind Washington but not awful (as in 1962 Mets) and they'll look to make some moves to get younger.
5. Look for Atlanta to try and add some bats (at least one) and Trenton to go after a starter to go behind Dunwoody and Salmon.
6. Most likely to be traded- definitely one of the Destroyers, not sure which. Biggest deals would be for Gordon and Walters.

Free Agent signings

The free-agency period is now over and the big names have signed. Here are some of the highlights:

- Arguably, the biggest name out there was a 37 year old pitcher. Chris Siddall, formerly of Fargo, has signed with Cheyenne for 3 years, $24 million with a mutual option for $8 million for a fourth year. No word from the Cheyenne camp as to whether they plan to start him or use him as a reliever.

- Cheyenne wasn't done- they also went out and got former Atlanta CF Lynn Abernathy. Abernathy could very well be moved out of CF to the infield at this point of his career. He'll get 2 years, $14 million with a mutual $7 million option after that to join Siddall in Wyoming.

- Speaking of Fargo pitchers, one did decide to stay. The Dirtbags re-signed closer Bert Price to a 2 year, $11.2 million extension. Price saved 32 games last season.

- New Orleans took their new starting CF from their division rivals. Former Houston outfielder Scott Diaz joins the Voodoo for 2 years and $13 million, with the team holding a $5 million option for a third year. Diaz has stolen over 400 bases in his career.

- Louisville re-signed veteran starter Danny Little to a 3 year, $20.4 million extension. The $6.8 per year was exactly the same as he had been earning over the last 4 years with the Legends. Little has won at least 10 games 6 out of the 7 seasons that The Bigs has been in existance.

- The Legends then added IF/OF Orlando Franco, formerly of Houston. Franco gets a lucrative 3 year, $26.2 million deal. He went 20-20 for the Riverdogs last season.

- After 2 decent seasons in Norfolk but never quite living up to the expectations after being traded for popular starter Babe Broadhurst, Jay Walker has opted for a change of scenery. That scenery is in northeastern PA, as he'll join Scranton after signing a 2 year, $14.4 million deal. Walker set a career high in doubles last season and a career low in runs.

- Finally, Austin will get a veteran presence on the mound as they add both Carlton Fleming and Matty Eusebio. Fleming, now a former Legend, gets one year at $5.3 million with a mutual option for a second season at the same price, while former Atlanta Bandit Eusebio will pitch on the same contract, except at $5.4 million. The two pitchers have 208 combined career wins.

Thursday, November 5, 2009

St. Louis changes team name, TBDN reporter tossed from press conference

The Trenton office of TBDN stirred up a little controversy at today's press conference in St. Louis. The AL North team formerly known as the Silly Nannies held a press conference at Busch Stadium to announce the team was changing its name to the RAGE. The first question came from Trenton reporter Anita Dolla, who asked "Why did you decide on something that sounds like a professional indoor soccer team name?". St. Louis representatives refused to answer the question and Ms. Dolla was escorted from the building by security. The press conference continued for about ten minutes afterward.

The offseason trade scorecard

As opposed to real life, most of the big-time trades are made in the offseason. Thus far there haven't been too many deals, but some blockbusters have already gone down.

Fargo Dirtbags and Trenton Traffic

Fargo gets: RP Chris Jennings
Trenton gets: RP Furio Diggins (Hi-A), RP Roy Stock (AA)

Analysis: The loss of Chris Siddall to free agency left a spot in the Dirtbags bullpen which appears to be filled by Jennings. Jennings can either set up Bert Price or close if Price struggles. Trenton is paying for most of his salary this season, so he comes cheap for one year but he's got three more seasons after this one, which is part of the reason why Trenton was willing to deal him. Trenton received Diggins, who is a #5 starter at best, and Stock, who isn't ever going to be a ML closer but could pan out to be a solid reliever.

Boston Bambinos and Monterrey Sultans

Boston gets: C Rick Anderson
Monterrey gets: C Grover Becker, LF Ron Cookson (AAA)

Analysis: Boston was willing to give up Cookson, a well-rounded offensive corner outfielder, to upgrade their catching position. Anderson has always been a decent defensive catcher but has seen his average fall an amazing 96 points over two seasons. The good news is he's still only 25 and has two seasons of at least 29 HRs and at least 96 RBI under his belt and he is moving to Boston, a good hitters' ballpark. As for Monterrey's catching situation, they seem likely to go with rookie Vin Logan, who is not nearly as good defensively as Anderson but has the potential to be a monster hitter.

Trenton Traffic and San Juan Dead Bunnies

Trenton gets: 3B/OF Calvin Chang
San Juan gets: SS Brandon Martin, SP Bert Pierre, RF Tony Gutierrez (AAA)

Analysis: Trenton overhauled their offense last season and made great strides even before the Dunwoody/Salmon deal and the Traffic feel this is the last piece of their offense. Chang put up numbers worthy of MVP discussion last season for last place San Juan and should get plenty of opportunities in the middle of an already good lineup. Pierre was arguably Trenton's best pitcher last season before the big trade- he went 10-8 with an ERA of 3.47 last season. Martin's value depends on whether he can develop defensively- he would be a good hitter for a shortstop, but not good enough at any other position (at least on a contending team). Gutierrez is now the heir apparent in RF- he isn't likely to ever hit like Chang, but he's hit .300 with about 20-25 HRs in the minors and that might be good enough for the Bunnies.

Syracuse Simpletons and Atlanta Bandits

Syracuse gets: SP Steven Michaels, SP D'Angelo Ramirez (AA)
Atlanta gets: SP Kazuhiro Whang

Analysis: This one, I have to admit, is a bit of a head-scratcher for me. The deal does seem to be relatively even, but you normally don't see a 35-year-old starter get traded FROM a contending team (in this case, the back-to-back World Series champs) TO a rebuilding team (Syracuse went 71-91 last season and has finished last in the AL North each of the last three seasons). You would have to think that Syracuse feels this is their season to contend. Michaels is one of the most decorated pitchers in this league, with 6 All-Star appearances and a Cy Young to his name. He went 16-9 with a 2.79 ERA last season, so he's still one of the top pitchers in the league. Ramirez has control issues, but if he can find the plate, he could be a decent back of the rotation type guy. As for Atlanta, they get Whang, a 21-year-old potential ace who may need a little time to develop. Interesting deal in the respect that this may cost Atlanta in the short run, especially if Whang needs another season or two in the minors, but probably benefits them long term,