Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Spotlight on: AL North

As we eagerly await the well-ballyhooed list of the top 100 Minor League prospects, scheduled to appear on this blog at some point tonight, we continue our ML "previews". We head up north today, as currently we have the Ottawa Naughty Kitties tied for first place with the Milwaukee Maniac Maulers at 8-4, and the Pawtucket Patriots and Cleveland Skidmarks tied at 6-6 (not a good day to have a team nicknamed the Patriots).



Will the Naughty Kitties continue to purr, or will they get Mauled? Will Peter Griffin's favorite brewery catch the two at the top or will Cleveland cause the rest of the division to skid? Let's start with the offense.



-We begin in the Land of Brats. The Maulers have a very balanced attack. starting with SS Ray Buchanan at the top. 2B Tim Harding is next- if he could only hit a little more he'd be a big-time offensive threat, as he draws walks and is already wreaking havoc on the basepaths. 1B Andre Eckenstahler is a professional hitter, but must be pitched to, as possible MVP candidate CF Luis Martinez (acquired in the big Henriquez deal) bats behind him. Pep Osborn and Homer Treadway should have plenty of RBIs and even the best defensive catcher in the division, Victor Gonzales, is not going to be an easy out.

- After Milwaukee there is a bit of a dropoff. I'll take Cleveland next, as CF Walter Guerrero is not a prototypical leadoff hitter- probably not a great average but does provide some pop. While not having as much depth as Milwaukee, they do have good hitters in C Marc Strange, LF Bret King, SS Orlando Franco, and DH Hal Brinkley.

- Pawtucket is going to be a feast or famine team. C Mac Schalk is maybe the only true well-rounded hitter in this lineup. After him are 3B Richard Little, 1B Francisco Javier, and DH Dicky Takahashi, who will all hit their fair share of home runs but can't be counted on to hit for a high average. If these 3 are going well Pawtucket can score enough runs- if not, they'll struggle.

- Ottawa has some question marks in the lineup- they have solid defensive players who may not hit enough to keep up with the likes of Milwaukee. C Hector Borland and 1B Clark Johnstone are the best all-around hitters in this lineup.



Now on to the pitching.

- I like Milwaukee's pitching the best out of the 4 teams here. They have 4 solid starters in James Morton, Graham Costello, Woody Hiller, and Vic Chavez. The have Vin Serano at the closer position and I like Quentin Hughes and Wally Lawton coming out of the pen to set up Serano. Although I can't fault them for making the deal, would anybody else like to have seen what this rotation would have looked like with Henriquez?
- Cleveland is the best of the rest. I like 3 out of their starting 5; Carlton Fleming, Orber Marin, and Steven Michaels can give quality innings to the Skidmarks. I think Hi Nolan maybe needs some better quality pitches but other than that, he's another solid pitcher. Pablo Rijo is the closer; although he is quite capable of getting righties out, he will be extremely nasty on lefties with his biting slider and big-time changeup. Tony Frank is the best setup arm in Cleveland's pen. That being said, a lot of pressure falls on Marc Strange, as he's not gifted at handling the staff.
- Ottawa has a deep bullpen but is not as deep in the starting staff. Brad Clapp and Jim Arnold are probably the two best pitchers for the Naughty Kitties, but I think Jerome Frank and Julian Gonzalez might have control issues. The pen has quality arms in closer Carlos Canseco and setup men Miguel Park, Benito Martin, and Craig Hughes.
- Pawtucket has question marks in the rotation from the top all the way to the bottom. The Patriots will be counting on Pete Rubel and Jared Bellhorn to anchor their staff; Rubel is unproven- he'd make a nice #3 or 4 starter, but I don't think he was given a 5 year- $73.5 million contract to be anything other than an ace. Time will tell if that's what he will become. Bellhorn may struggle to retire hitters. In the bullpen they have Vic Lee to close and Enrique Rijo to setup; both are solid.

Predictions (Don't hold me to any of this):

1. Hmmmm, best lineup and best pitching in the division? I think I'm going to have to go out on a limb and take Milwaukee to win the division here.

2. Cleveland could be an interesting team: if all goes well for them I think you'd have to at least throw them in the discussion for making the playoffs. They are going to need that top of the lineup in Guerrero and Strange to produce and could use another arm or two, particularly in the pen.

3. I think Ottawa finishes ahead of Pawtucket because of pitching.

4. Pete Rubel becomes our league's Barry Zito- decent pitcher who is way overpaid.

Monday, February 4, 2008

Top 100 Prospects in The Bigs

TOP 100 Prospects In The Bigs

There is a bulk of talent at the minor league level as we start season 1. The Fargo Dirtbags are the envy of the league as they have the top 2 prospects in the league. It was Ottawa however that claimed the most prospects in the Top 100 with 8, followed by Milwaukee and Pawtuket with 6 and 5 respectively. I have included a mini statline which has the key ratings in judging a player. I also took into account the most under-rated rating in HBD, durability. Baserunning and speed also increased the players rating sligtly. If the health was below 55 or so there was a slight decrease in the players' rating as well. Makeup also played a minor role. Good/great defense also made a significant difference.

ABREV:MEANING
ccontact
ppower
ibatting eye
++++> 90 pitch rating
+++75-90 pitch rating
++60-75 pitch rating
+40-60 pitch rating
gloveoverall defense

RANKPLAYERPOSRATINGFRAPROJNOTES
1.Javier HenriquezSP9.9FAR99100/95 Splits, 2+++2++, 93 control
2.Sammy PierceSP9.4FAR90100/80 splits, 2+++1++1+, 93 control
3.Dwight SalmonSP9.35SAL8784/90 splits, 1+++2++ 93 control
4.Fred CarterSP9.3ATL8783/82 splits, 3++1+, 100 control
5.Wendell DurringtonSS9.2TEX94c83, p78, 77/88 splits, i70, B+ glove
6.Steve ElsterSP9.0LV8198/84 splits, 2+++1+, 80 control
7.Burt Stevenson1B9.0CHI86c91, p95, 91/85 splits,i93,D+glove
8.Kenneth GravesSP9.0NY7889/92 splits, 3+++2++, 89 control
9.Sean Simpson2B9.0MIL93c70, p81, 95/98 splits,i82,B--glove
10.Tony RowanSP8.9OTT8187/83 splits, 1+++2++, 90 control
11.Alex SamuelCP8.9DUR7796/99 splits,3+++1+, 86 control
12.James DixonSS8.85ANA91c78, p83, 82/73s, i86,B-glove
13.Daniel KochSS8.75TRE91c74, p90, 72/72 splits, i71, B+ glove
14.Jason SpragueSP8.65MEM8276/93 splits, 1+++1++2+, 90 control
15.
Jocko Keats
SP8.5MNT7889/81 splits, 1+++4+, 83 control
16.
Joe Gleason
SP8.45HOU7884/79 splits, 2+++1++1+, 93 control
17.
Marty Lane
SP8.4COL9068/71 splits, 2+++2++, 99 control
18.
Albie Torres
SS8.4N.O.88c67, p75, 78/73 splits, i75, A- glove
19.
Lewis Graham
SP8.35OTT7280/71 splits, 2+++2++, 98 control
20.
Bret Pierre
SP8.35NY7686/83 splits, 1+++1++1+, 79 control
21.Ryan MartinSP8.3OTT7874/71 splits, 2+++1+, 99 control
22.
Miguel Cerveza
SS8.3BOI91c76, p60, 81/65 splits, i75, A- glove
23.Luther BrushSP8.25MNT8664/80 splits, 1+++3++, 83 control
24.
Ted Reese
CP8.25CHI81100/70 splits, 1+++1+, 96 control
25.Orber HoltSP8.2MIL8382/73 splits, 2+++1+, 92 control
26.Trever Russell2B8.2CHI84c88, p100, 68/69 splits, i82, C- glove
27.Norm EdwardsSP8.2MNT7880/70 splits, 2+++2++, 96 control
28.Derrick MathewsSS8.2MNT84c52, p66, 70/56s, i68, A glove
29.Turner DarrSP8.15CIN9179/65 splits, 1+++3+++, 97 control
30.Perry HermanSP8.15TRE8176/81 splits, 1+++2+, 80 control
31.Johnnie ReaganSP8.15TRE7677/77 splits, 2+++1++1+, 98 control
32.
Del Lopez
CF8.15MIL87c57, p76, 73/73 splits, i92, B++ glove
33.
Hipolito Maradona
SP8.15LOU8567/73 splits, 2+++2++, 100 control
34.Louie BolivarSP8.15PAW8672/66 splits, 2+++3++, 81 control
35.David Rushford3B8.1PHI87c52, p95, 73/90 splits, i78, C+ glove
36.
Monte Duvall
SS8.1MEM83c71, p98, 67/52 splits, i46, B- glove
37.Jorge GuzmanSP8.05CHI8484/67 splits, 2+++2+, 96 control
38.Hideo NakanoCF8.05TEX84c91, p61, 47/65 splits, i60, A- glove
39.Erik BakerSS8.0OTT76c56, p66, 64/72 splits, i55, A- glove
40.
Willy Williams
SP8.0FAR8172/77 splits, 2+++1++2+, 91 control
41.Rob CepedaSP8.0LA8684/73 splits, 2+++2+, 67 control
42.Damion MaysSP8.0HUN7786/76 splits, 1+++1++2++, 73 control
43.Steve SweeneyRF8.0SJ90c68, p80, 77/96 splits, i83, D+ glove
44.Oswaldo AstacioSP8.0MEM8481/57 splits, 3+++, 95 control
45.Orber MarinSP7.95CLE8977/65 splits, 1+++3++, 85 control
46.Oswaldo ArmasSS7.95MON85c71, p59, 61/70 splits, i73, B+ glove
47.Freddie HamptonCP7.9SAL7091/72 splits, 2+++1+, 90 control
48.Jeremi GantSP7.9MON8673/64 splits, 2+++1++1+, 89 control
49.Billy NationSP7.85LV7972/69 splits, 2+++2++1+, 80 control
50.Henry TurnerCF7.85OTT80c80, p61, 67/60 splits, i61,B glove
51.Marino CoronadoSS7.85ANA83c87, p46, 45/26 splits, i76, A glove
52.Tony KnonSS7.8BOI83c71, p68, 84/65splits, i62, B- glove
53.Coco HinesCP7.8MIL7876/84 splits, 1++++1++, 100 control
54.Lloyd FreelCP7.8OTT7473/88 splits, 2+++2++, 92 control
55.Alex CornejoCP7.8COL7387/69 splits, 2+++, 98 control
56.Gary JacksonSP7.7LA8470/57 splits, 2+++1++1+, 97 control
57.Vicente GandarillasSP7.7COL7582/74 splits, 1+++3+, 83 control
58.Tom HernandezCP7.7N.O.7879/78 splits, 2+++1++, 90 control
59.Ralph PhillipsSS7.7PHI79c44, p57, 59/72 splits, i62, A glove
60.
Jonathan MacDougal
SP7.65NOR8053/75 splits, 2+++2+, 10 control
61.Footsie LewisSP7.65BOI7784/49 splits, 2+++2++1+, 72 control
62.Felix Pryce2B7.65SJ80c79, p56, 47/63 splits, i78, B- glove
63.Corky MaranvilleC7.65BAL76c80, p82,84/56 splits, i37,C+ glove
64.Al Carrasco3B7.65LV81c89, p89, 48/48 splits, i69, C+ glove
65.Earl HallSS7.65PAW81c56, p65, 61/83 splits, i56,B glove
66.BC ThompsonSS7.5NY77c66, p33, 79/61 splits, i68, A- glove
67.Nerio BransonSP7.5MIL7664/66 splits, 2+++2++, 92 control
68.Karim Ortiz3B7.5MEM83c81, p81, 70/66 splits, i66, C+ glove
69.Juan CabreraSP7.5MNT8267/73 splits, 4+++, 79 control
70.Derrek Bedard2B7.5SAL81c79, p79, 67/58 splits, i81, C- glove
71.Ray Cepicki2B7.5N.O.83c61, p93, 51/66 splits, i73, C+ glove
72.Kenneth SchalkCP7.5SJ8081/78 splits, 2+++, 90 control
73.
Ivan Castilla
SP7.5COL8462/77 splits, 2+++1++1+, 72 control
74.Tony MercedCP7.5BAL8069/78 splits , 2+++, 92 control
75.
Russell Newton
SP7.45PAW7956/74 splits, 2+++2++1+, 86 control
76.
Nick Hernandez
LF7.4OTT80c100, p36, 48/91 splits, i100, D+ glove
77.
Brooke Teut
3B7.4DUR84c50, p84, 79/70 splits, i55, B- glove
78.
Stephen Mills
1B7.4TRE79c83, p89, 81/82 splits, i77, D- glove
79.
Tom Cummings
CP7.4DUR7585/67 splits , 2+++1++, 89 control
80.
Willie Sierra
C7.35BOI74c88, p86, 100/62 splits, i71, D glove
81.
Vance D'Amico
SP7.35CLE8182/89 splits, 2+++, 64 control
82.
Russ Dawkins
SP7.35MON8071/50 splits, 3+++1+, 90 control
83.Albert Martin2B7.3OTT79c77, p92, 58/69 splits, i60, C- glove
84.
Orlando Diaz
SS7.3AZ81c71, p73, 68/58 splits, i56, B- glove
85.
Ismael Polanco
1B7.3LOU73c95, p82, 62/66 splits, i80, D glove
86.
Steve Bako
2B7.25HOU83c62, p74, 73/63 splits, i71, B glove
87.
Matty Matos
1B7.25MON77c84, p88, 68/61 splits, i71, F+ glove
88.
Tony Steib
C7.25NAS85c100, p58, 86/83 splits, i69, C glove
89.
Tony Mays
3B7.25NOR77c48, p81, 67/67 splits, i73, B+ glove
90.
George Spencer
2B7.2ANA79c78, p70, 64/58 splits, i76, C- glove
91.
John Baldwin
CF7.2SJ81c51, p76, 53/88 splits, i58, B- glove
92.
Victor Lloyd
SS7.2BAL74c48, p69, 66/52 splits, i62, B glove
93.
Paul Saarloos
SP7.15TEX7859/81 splits, 1+++3+, 85 control
94.
Tom Ontiveros
SP7.15VAN7463/76 splits, 1+++1++2+, 83 control
95.
Placido Cela
SP7.15MIL7368/47 splits, 3+++1++, 94 control
96.
Jared McMahon
CP7.15PAW7869/78 splits, 2+++1++, 80 control
97.
Jimmy Cole
SP7.1DUR7763/78 splits, 2+++1+, 59 control
98.
Ryan Snyder
RF7.05ATL83c45, p85, 66/80 splits, i94, C glove
99.
Jordan Ball
2B7.05CLE82c85, p42, 78/81 splits, i80, C++ glove
100.Raymond Lamb2B7.05PAW78c66, p46, 64/61 splits, i85, B- glove
101
Wayne Wilson
SP7.0NAS7377/73 splits, 1+++2++, 63 control

Spotlight on: AL East

OK, now that the NL is done it's on to the American League. We start our trip around the league in the east, where currently we have New York New York out in front at 8-1. The Huntington Beachcombers and Louisville Legends sit dead even at 4-4, and the Baltimore Iron Birds are at the back of the pack at 3-6. Will the standings stay this way for the year?

We'll start by breaking down the offenses. I think the offensive stats at the current moment are misleading- New York leads the majors in runs by a mile, but I think that may be more a function of facing the same starting pitcher 4 straight games against Baltimore to start the season than of having a truly dominant offense. I think all 4 offenses are pretty close and I will probably receive flak from fans in the Big Apple, but we start in Baltimore.

- The Iron Birds have a fairly deep offense. CF Javier Tavarez, an offseason pickup from Pawtucket, solidifies the 2 spot. He's got big-time hitters behind him is C Al Bautista, LF Miguel Rios, 3B Greg Whitaker, and SS Kurt Christenson. I think they will eventually get on track.
- Louisville's lineup is also solid, jumpstarted by one of the few leadoff third basemen I've ever sen in Kareem Raines. He should get on base enough for guys like 1B Arnold Hunter and Ernest Montgomery, a guy really searching for a defensive position. Former Trenton 2B Bernard Young, RF Stewart Reese, and C Cy Hughes help make this a deep lineup.
- Huntington has 5 big time hitters at the 1-5 spot. CF Steven Leonard, 1B Anthony Bernard, RF Orel MacFarlane, slugging 2B Bob Koplove, and DH Randy Fergeson should combine to score plenty of runs this year.
- New York may not continue at their current pace, but they can score runs. CF Scott Diaz and Brandon Rhodes are a very solid 1-2 combination. C King Winn is very solid at the 3 spot, a good professional hitter. Very interesting to see Rodriguez and Soriano in a New York lineup together, but it's not Alex and Alfonso but Vladimir and Bernie. Vladimir Rodriugez bats cleanup- he's an interesting player as he will definitely help New York this year but a year in AAA might have helped his development more- it's an interesting dilemma. Bernie Soriano happens to play 2B and hit well like his real-life ML namesake- maybe not on an MVP level, but he'll put up numbers.

On to the pitching staffs. Again, I don't think any team here is head and shoulders above the others.

- We will begin the roundup here in Louisville. The rotation begins with Max Jacquez, who if he is not a legitimate ace would be a very good number 2 starter. Behind him there is depth in Tom Beltran, Lance Stevens, and Danny Little. Setup may be a bit of a question, but Justin Lawrence should nail down most of his opportunities.
- Huntington isn't too far behind, having a decent starting staff of its own. Clinton Skrmetta may need to buy a vowel but he's a solid starter. He's got Sadre Witt and Daryl Cashman, a young pitcher with a lot of talent, behind him. Olmedo James rounds out the top 4. Davey Guzman is a capable closer.
- New York may not have the starting pitching of Louisville or Huntington, but the bullpen is fairly strong. Bo Rekar currently sits at #2 and should fit that role nicely. Miguel Benitez, Dustin Parnell, and Joey Hubbard will definitely eat innings but whether they can get hitters out may be a question mark. In the bullpen they not only have Jose Martin to closer but Wesley Cora and Hugh Ross have potential at the setup positions.
- Baltimore has some question marks. Their top three are fairly solid in Ringo Walsh, Clarence Forsch, and Stan Thompson, but they'll need innings from guys outside of those three. That being said, the biggest question marks could be closer Frank Wilkins and catcher Al Bautista, who is in the lineup for his offense.

Predictions (don't hold me to any of this):

1. I think it will come down to New York, Louisville, and Huntington, as Baltimore has too many question marks on the pitching staff. Huntington's defense might end up costing them some games, which I don't think they can afford to do. I'm not sure New York can keep up what they have been doing, so it looks like Louisville by process of elimination. By no means do I see a clear-cut favorite here.
2. The 2nd and 3rd place teams finish within 10 games of 1st. Not sure if that gets them a wild card.
3. If he stays in Huntington all year Bob Koplove will hit at least 60 home runs.

Sunday, February 3, 2008

Spotlight on: NL Playoffs

Now for the fun part- predicting the playoffs. As a disclaimer, I am by no means a professional prognosticator and have no plans to quit my day job, so don't catch the next flight to Vegas after you read this. But anyway, here's how I see the playoffs playing out:

First of all, the 6 teams in order of seeding:
1. Montreal
2. Arizona
3. Norfolk
4. New Orleans (out of the wide open South)
5. Cincinnati
6. Salem (I think has the most out of the rest)

OK, first round shouldn't be too difficult. I think Cincinnati dispatches New Orleans in 4, and Norfolk takes out Salem in 4. So we have the top four teams left.

2nd round is where it gets interesting. Montreal-Cincinnati would be a great World Series if one of them was in the AL, but we get it in the 2nd round. Arizona and Norfolk would face off on the other side of the bracket. I'll pick a slight upset and say Cincinnati in 5- I think if the series was 7 games I'd probably take Montreal, but I think in a shorter series Cincinnati's starters allows them to move on. Should be great baseball. I think Arizona takes out Norfolk in 4.

So we're down to Cincinnati against Arizona for the right to go to the series. Is this where the Dragons' flight ends, or can a wild card team make the playoffs? I'll take Cincinnati in 6.

Spotlight on: NL West

Well, it's a big day. The Patriots and Giants are battling today in Arizona so I'm sure everyone is just waiting for my predictions about... the NL West.

Speaking of Arizona, the D-backs are being talked about as one of the early favorites to come out of the NL this year. They currently hold the division lead at 4-1. The Salem Sacrifices are close behind at 3-2, the L.A. Dodgers are at 2-3, and the Boise Buckskins are in the cellar at 1-4. Of course it's still early, so let's dissect the teams starting with the offenses. This is maybe the division in the NL with the most offense.

-We'll start in the desert where the Diamondbacks have put together an offense that could possibly rival Montreal with its depth. If Hernandez and Meng can get on base, there are plenty of bats behind them in C Willis Petrov, LF Osvaldo Johnson, 1B Eddie Greer, 2B King Greeley, and 3B Vic Blanco. SS Andres Calderon is solid on defense but will also provide his share of offense.
- The Dodgers are going to be tough to predict- on paper they would have the second best offense but they are going to need to stay healthy in order for that to happen. The two big question marks are the 1 and 2 hitters, LF Charles Tomko and CF Lynn Abernathy. They have a lot of potential but no one really knows for sure if they can stay off the DL. If they do, L.A. could score a lot of runs, with C Ruben Hernandez, 2B Marc Olson, and 1B Abdullah Huff driving in Tomko and Abernathy.
- Salem is another offense that could go either way. They have some raw athletes in the beginning of their lineup but I'm not sure they can get on base enough. If this was an Olympic 4 * 100 meter relay, I'd feel great about running out 1B Jorge Tejera, 2B Frank Grant, RF Chip Young, and CF Nate Cox for our country- I think we'd at least win bronze. Out of those 4, however, Cox is really the only polished hitter. 3B Max Clifton and LF Travis Ryan are solid in the 5 and 6 spots.
- Boise doesn't quite have the explosive potential of the other teams in the division, but they will not be devoid of offense. 2B Alex (don't call me John) McCain leads off and should be solid in that role. 3B Cap Herrera may only be 22, but he is a future superstar and will contribute right away. He will be supported in the lineup bu LF Yank Lohse. Down at the bottom is C Sean Canseco, who will provide a bit of offense but his most important role is to help and handle the pitching staff; he will do this quite well.

Speaking of the pitching staffs, let's examine the arms race in the wild west.

- I'll start with Salem over Arizona for the same reason I took Cincinnati over Arizona- the similarities are eerie. Salem, like Cincinnati, has two big-time starters and question marks behind it. Arizona is built a lot like Montreal- no big time starters but better depth. One could argue either way. Salem has David Dunwoody, the best starter in this division and a legitimate ace. Dan Pederson is going to be very solid behind him. Salem could end up competing for the last wild card spot and might look to deal for some pitching at some point, as I'm not sold on George Tipton as a starter and could use some help for Kevin Nomo as the closer.
- Arizona has to be next, with 4 solid, if unspectacular, starters in Hippolito Pujols, Vin Bautista, Kane Grahe, and Brandon Small. The biggest question mark with the staff may not even be anyone behind the plate- it may be if Petrov can handle the staff and call the right pitches. Vic Trevino will be the closer and isn't a bad option. Losing B.C. Bennett for the year to elbow surgery is a blow to the staff.
- L.A. is going to struggle to get hitters out this year. 4th starter Carlos Bennett is really the only starter who fits his role well. He seems like a guy who could win about 10 games if the offense clicks (see above). Other than that the Dodgers have very little in the cupboard; Vince Costello is not an ace and the rest of the staff is shaky as well. Bo Hatfield is quite capable in the closer role but the first 8 innings may make him a spectator more than he would like.
- And yet, the Dodgers finish 3rd in this division in pitching. Boise's manager is going to regret playing in an offensvie park, as they will give up a ton of runs. Kelly Downs is a solid pitcher and can do a decent job, but has little to no help. The 2nd and 3rd starters are Glendon Governale and Dick Raines, who should find the plate about as often as Wile E. Coyote catches the Roadrunner. Between these two, 4th starter Heath Caufield, and part-time closer Marty Creek, Sean Canseco will be in great shape chasing balls going to the backstop this year. Jim Bell is the other closer.

Predictions (Don't hold me to any of this):

1. Arizona comes out of this division- too much offense and a solid rotation. It would, however, to see how they would match up with a team like Cincinnati who possibly could derail their WS hopes in a short series with Robinson and Christians. Could their offense get to those guys? It would be fun to watch if it did happen.
2. Salem may not have enough pitching to make the wild-card, but are they really that much worse than teams like Trenton, Atlanta, Chicago, or anyone in the south? I've got Cincinnati just about penned into the 5 spot (if they can't overtake Montreal), and this last spot is WIDE open.
3. The Diamondbacks finish in the top 2 in runs in the NL.
4. Boise's pitching staff leads the league in walks.