Monday, February 4, 2008

Spotlight on: AL East

OK, now that the NL is done it's on to the American League. We start our trip around the league in the east, where currently we have New York New York out in front at 8-1. The Huntington Beachcombers and Louisville Legends sit dead even at 4-4, and the Baltimore Iron Birds are at the back of the pack at 3-6. Will the standings stay this way for the year?

We'll start by breaking down the offenses. I think the offensive stats at the current moment are misleading- New York leads the majors in runs by a mile, but I think that may be more a function of facing the same starting pitcher 4 straight games against Baltimore to start the season than of having a truly dominant offense. I think all 4 offenses are pretty close and I will probably receive flak from fans in the Big Apple, but we start in Baltimore.

- The Iron Birds have a fairly deep offense. CF Javier Tavarez, an offseason pickup from Pawtucket, solidifies the 2 spot. He's got big-time hitters behind him is C Al Bautista, LF Miguel Rios, 3B Greg Whitaker, and SS Kurt Christenson. I think they will eventually get on track.
- Louisville's lineup is also solid, jumpstarted by one of the few leadoff third basemen I've ever sen in Kareem Raines. He should get on base enough for guys like 1B Arnold Hunter and Ernest Montgomery, a guy really searching for a defensive position. Former Trenton 2B Bernard Young, RF Stewart Reese, and C Cy Hughes help make this a deep lineup.
- Huntington has 5 big time hitters at the 1-5 spot. CF Steven Leonard, 1B Anthony Bernard, RF Orel MacFarlane, slugging 2B Bob Koplove, and DH Randy Fergeson should combine to score plenty of runs this year.
- New York may not continue at their current pace, but they can score runs. CF Scott Diaz and Brandon Rhodes are a very solid 1-2 combination. C King Winn is very solid at the 3 spot, a good professional hitter. Very interesting to see Rodriguez and Soriano in a New York lineup together, but it's not Alex and Alfonso but Vladimir and Bernie. Vladimir Rodriugez bats cleanup- he's an interesting player as he will definitely help New York this year but a year in AAA might have helped his development more- it's an interesting dilemma. Bernie Soriano happens to play 2B and hit well like his real-life ML namesake- maybe not on an MVP level, but he'll put up numbers.

On to the pitching staffs. Again, I don't think any team here is head and shoulders above the others.

- We will begin the roundup here in Louisville. The rotation begins with Max Jacquez, who if he is not a legitimate ace would be a very good number 2 starter. Behind him there is depth in Tom Beltran, Lance Stevens, and Danny Little. Setup may be a bit of a question, but Justin Lawrence should nail down most of his opportunities.
- Huntington isn't too far behind, having a decent starting staff of its own. Clinton Skrmetta may need to buy a vowel but he's a solid starter. He's got Sadre Witt and Daryl Cashman, a young pitcher with a lot of talent, behind him. Olmedo James rounds out the top 4. Davey Guzman is a capable closer.
- New York may not have the starting pitching of Louisville or Huntington, but the bullpen is fairly strong. Bo Rekar currently sits at #2 and should fit that role nicely. Miguel Benitez, Dustin Parnell, and Joey Hubbard will definitely eat innings but whether they can get hitters out may be a question mark. In the bullpen they not only have Jose Martin to closer but Wesley Cora and Hugh Ross have potential at the setup positions.
- Baltimore has some question marks. Their top three are fairly solid in Ringo Walsh, Clarence Forsch, and Stan Thompson, but they'll need innings from guys outside of those three. That being said, the biggest question marks could be closer Frank Wilkins and catcher Al Bautista, who is in the lineup for his offense.

Predictions (don't hold me to any of this):

1. I think it will come down to New York, Louisville, and Huntington, as Baltimore has too many question marks on the pitching staff. Huntington's defense might end up costing them some games, which I don't think they can afford to do. I'm not sure New York can keep up what they have been doing, so it looks like Louisville by process of elimination. By no means do I see a clear-cut favorite here.
2. The 2nd and 3rd place teams finish within 10 games of 1st. Not sure if that gets them a wild card.
3. If he stays in Huntington all year Bob Koplove will hit at least 60 home runs.

Sunday, February 3, 2008

Spotlight on: NL Playoffs

Now for the fun part- predicting the playoffs. As a disclaimer, I am by no means a professional prognosticator and have no plans to quit my day job, so don't catch the next flight to Vegas after you read this. But anyway, here's how I see the playoffs playing out:

First of all, the 6 teams in order of seeding:
1. Montreal
2. Arizona
3. Norfolk
4. New Orleans (out of the wide open South)
5. Cincinnati
6. Salem (I think has the most out of the rest)

OK, first round shouldn't be too difficult. I think Cincinnati dispatches New Orleans in 4, and Norfolk takes out Salem in 4. So we have the top four teams left.

2nd round is where it gets interesting. Montreal-Cincinnati would be a great World Series if one of them was in the AL, but we get it in the 2nd round. Arizona and Norfolk would face off on the other side of the bracket. I'll pick a slight upset and say Cincinnati in 5- I think if the series was 7 games I'd probably take Montreal, but I think in a shorter series Cincinnati's starters allows them to move on. Should be great baseball. I think Arizona takes out Norfolk in 4.

So we're down to Cincinnati against Arizona for the right to go to the series. Is this where the Dragons' flight ends, or can a wild card team make the playoffs? I'll take Cincinnati in 6.

Spotlight on: NL West

Well, it's a big day. The Patriots and Giants are battling today in Arizona so I'm sure everyone is just waiting for my predictions about... the NL West.

Speaking of Arizona, the D-backs are being talked about as one of the early favorites to come out of the NL this year. They currently hold the division lead at 4-1. The Salem Sacrifices are close behind at 3-2, the L.A. Dodgers are at 2-3, and the Boise Buckskins are in the cellar at 1-4. Of course it's still early, so let's dissect the teams starting with the offenses. This is maybe the division in the NL with the most offense.

-We'll start in the desert where the Diamondbacks have put together an offense that could possibly rival Montreal with its depth. If Hernandez and Meng can get on base, there are plenty of bats behind them in C Willis Petrov, LF Osvaldo Johnson, 1B Eddie Greer, 2B King Greeley, and 3B Vic Blanco. SS Andres Calderon is solid on defense but will also provide his share of offense.
- The Dodgers are going to be tough to predict- on paper they would have the second best offense but they are going to need to stay healthy in order for that to happen. The two big question marks are the 1 and 2 hitters, LF Charles Tomko and CF Lynn Abernathy. They have a lot of potential but no one really knows for sure if they can stay off the DL. If they do, L.A. could score a lot of runs, with C Ruben Hernandez, 2B Marc Olson, and 1B Abdullah Huff driving in Tomko and Abernathy.
- Salem is another offense that could go either way. They have some raw athletes in the beginning of their lineup but I'm not sure they can get on base enough. If this was an Olympic 4 * 100 meter relay, I'd feel great about running out 1B Jorge Tejera, 2B Frank Grant, RF Chip Young, and CF Nate Cox for our country- I think we'd at least win bronze. Out of those 4, however, Cox is really the only polished hitter. 3B Max Clifton and LF Travis Ryan are solid in the 5 and 6 spots.
- Boise doesn't quite have the explosive potential of the other teams in the division, but they will not be devoid of offense. 2B Alex (don't call me John) McCain leads off and should be solid in that role. 3B Cap Herrera may only be 22, but he is a future superstar and will contribute right away. He will be supported in the lineup bu LF Yank Lohse. Down at the bottom is C Sean Canseco, who will provide a bit of offense but his most important role is to help and handle the pitching staff; he will do this quite well.

Speaking of the pitching staffs, let's examine the arms race in the wild west.

- I'll start with Salem over Arizona for the same reason I took Cincinnati over Arizona- the similarities are eerie. Salem, like Cincinnati, has two big-time starters and question marks behind it. Arizona is built a lot like Montreal- no big time starters but better depth. One could argue either way. Salem has David Dunwoody, the best starter in this division and a legitimate ace. Dan Pederson is going to be very solid behind him. Salem could end up competing for the last wild card spot and might look to deal for some pitching at some point, as I'm not sold on George Tipton as a starter and could use some help for Kevin Nomo as the closer.
- Arizona has to be next, with 4 solid, if unspectacular, starters in Hippolito Pujols, Vin Bautista, Kane Grahe, and Brandon Small. The biggest question mark with the staff may not even be anyone behind the plate- it may be if Petrov can handle the staff and call the right pitches. Vic Trevino will be the closer and isn't a bad option. Losing B.C. Bennett for the year to elbow surgery is a blow to the staff.
- L.A. is going to struggle to get hitters out this year. 4th starter Carlos Bennett is really the only starter who fits his role well. He seems like a guy who could win about 10 games if the offense clicks (see above). Other than that the Dodgers have very little in the cupboard; Vince Costello is not an ace and the rest of the staff is shaky as well. Bo Hatfield is quite capable in the closer role but the first 8 innings may make him a spectator more than he would like.
- And yet, the Dodgers finish 3rd in this division in pitching. Boise's manager is going to regret playing in an offensvie park, as they will give up a ton of runs. Kelly Downs is a solid pitcher and can do a decent job, but has little to no help. The 2nd and 3rd starters are Glendon Governale and Dick Raines, who should find the plate about as often as Wile E. Coyote catches the Roadrunner. Between these two, 4th starter Heath Caufield, and part-time closer Marty Creek, Sean Canseco will be in great shape chasing balls going to the backstop this year. Jim Bell is the other closer.

Predictions (Don't hold me to any of this):

1. Arizona comes out of this division- too much offense and a solid rotation. It would, however, to see how they would match up with a team like Cincinnati who possibly could derail their WS hopes in a short series with Robinson and Christians. Could their offense get to those guys? It would be fun to watch if it did happen.
2. Salem may not have enough pitching to make the wild-card, but are they really that much worse than teams like Trenton, Atlanta, Chicago, or anyone in the south? I've got Cincinnati just about penned into the 5 spot (if they can't overtake Montreal), and this last spot is WIDE open.
3. The Diamondbacks finish in the top 2 in runs in the NL.
4. Boise's pitching staff leads the league in walks.

Saturday, February 2, 2008

Spotlight on: NL South

Since we've been to the NL East and North, on to the NL South. First, the current standings. The New Orleans Voodoo have put a hex on the division and lead at 3-1, the Houston Oilers and the Memphis Short Grass(?) are at 2-2 and the San Juan Dead Bunnies(!) are at 1-3. As usual, we will start with the offense.

-The best offense in the division could very well reside in last place right now. San Juan has two guys at the top to set the table in SS Mike Henderson and CF Jerome Grahe. After him they have RF Calvin Chang, who is a big-time star in the making, as well as Greg Cook at 3B, Jaret Teut at 1B, and 2B Jackie Wheeler at 2B all capable of driving in runs in bunches.
- The Oilers could very well be next, although it's close. I put them 2nd because of their 2-3-4 combination of 3B Leo Miller, SS Lawrence Flanagan, and LF Freddie Throneberry. Flanagan's defensive presence allows Miller to move from SS to 3B, which is probably a better fit for him. They should both flourish both at the plate and in the field. Even the defensive catcher, Bob Jenner, will be good for a few home runs from the 8 spot.
- Memphis has a few quality offensive players in Eli Jacquez, a CF who is a legitimate number 3 hitter, and RF Geronimo Fuentes and 3B Jim Powell at the back of the lineup.
- New Orleans and Memphis aren't too far away as far as offense goes. CF Don Jefferson is a good number 2 hitter and 1B Lyle Barber can hit for both average and power.

As for the pitching staffs, let's just say there could be a lot of runs scored in divisional games. There are a few pitchers with big-time potential but may end up struggling this year and no real bonafide aces, like a Broadhurst from Norfolk or Robinson in Cincinnati.

- The N.O. Voodoo's rotation is possibly the best of the division and isn't even the strength of the pitching staff. Carlos Matos is the ace but should really be a #2 on a strong staff. Regardless, he would have to be in the discussion as the best starter in this division along with Joey Adcock from San Juan and Claude Jacquez in Memphis. Tarik Olsen may be 36 but is a solid option at #3. Jose Merced is underrated at #5. What sets New Orleans apart is its bullpen, which is extremely deep. Glen Kelly is the closer and has great setup arms in front of him in Wilfredo Visquel, King Burns, and Buddy Titan.
-Memphis has Claude Jacquez anchoring the staff, with Malcolm Lawrence behind him, maybe a bit of a stretch as a number 2. Herrera and Fernandez should be ok at 3 and 4. Dude Huskey might struggle as the closer- I think he'd be fine as a setup guy.
- San Juan has a future borderline star in Joey Adcock, but he's a year away from being at his best. Buzz Lindend and Joaquin Cordero are decent arms. Chris Doster is the closer but has to be a bit of a question mark.
- The Oilers may want to see if Warren Moon can still throw. Jerome Oliver is the #2 starter and would fit into the category of being a year away. Guerrero and Hillenbrand are shaky as the rest of the top 3. Vince Perez should do fine as the closer.

Predictions (don't hold me to any of this):

1. Tough division to predict, as there seems to be no clear-cut favorite and each team has a major question mark. Can San Juan close games? Can New Orleans score enough? Will Houston get enough out of their starters? Can Memphis be solid enough across the board? If I had to choose I'd say New Orleans, but I could see San Juan winning this or even Houston if they get a few good breaks. Don't think Memphis has quite enough, although they could be in it for a while.
2. New Orleans will try to acquire offense near the deadline, while San Juan tries to add pitching. Not sure where it would come from.
3. If Memphis should indeed fall out of contention, multiple teams will inquire about the services of Eli Jacquez.

Spotlight on: NL North

OK, since I did the NL East and no one has sent me any death threats yet, I guess we will move on to the NL North. Currently, the Montreal Maroons sit atop the division at 3-1. The Chicago Cubs and Fargo Dirtbags(that's their actual name) split a series with each other to sit at 2-2, and the Cincinnati Dragons are hopefully not (bad pun alert) burned out at 1-3.

We'll start with the offenses.

- This rundown starts north of the border with Montreal. What else needs to be said? This is an extremely deep lineup, running pretty much 7 deep. Carlton Beck is probably the weakest hitter of the bunch, but he is a very solid defensive shortstop. Dewey Greenwood (CF) and Vicente Romero (3B) are good all around hitters, but Suzuki(2B), Taylor(C), and James(RF) behind them are all capable of driving in runs. Rico Valdez at the top should get his share of hits- I think the question becomes will he walk enough to be a great leadoff hitter. If he can get on base, Thomas Keisler (1B) has all the offensive tools to be a very good 2 hitter and then you have the mashers behind them. Potentially scary.
- I'd say the second best offense in this division resides in Cincinnati. While they don't have quite as many offensive weapons as Montreal, their lineup is fairly solid, as the 3-4-5 combination of Reid Colbert(2B), Antonio Cone(1B) and David Pineda(C) are all well-rounded hitters. Don't overlook Jack Wilkerson(CF) down in the 8 hole.
- Not far to the west is Chicago. The Cubs have a few solid options in the lineup, the best hitter being 1B Bud Klein in the 3 hole. Getting on base ahead of him is Torey Diaz, who maybe doesn't do any one thing extraordinarily well, but is a very well rounded player on offense and defense and could play for me anytime. Mitchell Dunham is a big slugger down in the 7 spot who will drive in runs but couldn't outrun a tree stump from 1st to 3rd.
- Fargo has many questions . Quentin Harper leads off but he, like Valdez in Montreal, might not be able to give the Dirtbags the OBP they need. Benji Crespo is a decent 2 hitter, but is probably overpriced at 4.2 million. Stan Peterson in CF doesn't give you the power you'd want from the 3 spot, but he will definitely hit.

Now to the pitching staffs. As far as the best in the division, it looks like a toss-up between Montreal and Cincinnati. I'll maybe give the slight edge to Cincinnati and start there.

-The Dragons have a lot to like in their pitching staff. Bernard Robinson is the best starting pitcher in this division and can be called a true ace. They picked up free-agent Manny Christians to give Cincy a very good 1-2 punch. There are question marks on the rest of the staff, but these two will win their fair share of games. The bullpen is solid too, anchored by Willy Nunez setting up Wily Mo (don't call me Pena) Owens. They have a good shot to make the playoffs and if they do, this is why they'd be really tough in a short series.
- Montreal is only slightly behind because they lack the big-time starters of Cincinnati. However, they seem to have a solid staff. Except maybe for Harry Lee being a bit of a stretch as an ace(he's more like a 2 or 3-solid, not spectacular), the rest of the rotation falls into line. Pat Clifton is a legit 2, Alex Valdez is a good option at 3, and Tony Howell can give quality innings out of the pen. Jackson Hayes is ok as a closer.
- Fargo checks in next. The bullpen is the strength of this team, as Bert Price is a capable closer and Chris Siddell is a very good setup man. The rotation is led by Tyler Wilson, but could struggle. They made what could have been the biggest deal of the offseason, getting future superstar starter Javier Henriquez from Milwaukee, but the front office is being conservative with him as he will pitch in AAA. If he pitches to his potential he could be the best pitcher in the entire league in a year or two.
- Chicago has very few options as far as arms are concerned. Tito Naulty would be an iffy proposition as a 4 or 5 starter, never mind an ace. Byron Duckworth anchors the bullpen, but getting him the ball to close games could be a challenge.

Predictions (Don't hold me to any of this):

1. Montreal takes the division. Far and away the best offense in this division. Cincinnati should be in the thick of the race for a wild-card berth and could be very dangerous in the postseason.
2. Fargo and Chicago will "battle" for the 3rd spot. Could go either way.
3. Chris Siddall (Fargo) will be dealt to a contender before the deadline. Several Cubs position players could be headed out of Chicago by that time, too.
4. At least for the first few years, Montreal and Cincinnati will be the premier rivalry in the NL.