Sunday, March 1, 2009

Bad Draft?

I have been using a 16 College and 10 High School split for all my drafts this year. I normally make the settings the same for each and it takes me two or three to figure how best to rank players and set the settings. These scout splits has worked pretty well for me so far in two drafts. Oh, if you are wondering what the split does, it is about 400 college and 100 HS players in the original 500. This draft board though is a little odd. Originally when I looked at it and shook my head and thought it was because I was drafting 25th. Between the high and low possible 1st rounders (looking at overalls) I have 34 total. I still thought maybe that it was because I was drafting 25th at first. Then I started counting the HS players and came up with way too many in the top 25 and top 50. Then I started looking in the top 100 and found the rest of the supposed 1st and 2nd round candidates in HS players which put the total near 50. Yeah, that is still way short for being a deep draft, well maybe not as I won't see a bunch of HS players and probably missing 10 or so college players easy.

The big problem is where they fall, with a 10 scouting in HS you know they are inflated and they were put where they belonged (funny but that's how it works you only need to worry about your blue chip ones being inflated). With this type of budget you have to be real careful drafting HS players period. The bigger problem is that I have only been seeing 10 in the top 100 total and most iffy picks at that. This one I am seeing almost 20 which is totally wrong from what I had been seeing. Which I wonder sometimes if they watch for patterns with owners and throw them a curve so they have to change their thinking, okay don't just blame me as their are others here also.

I really had to look at the 4 HS players from top to bottom because they are amongst the highest rated on my board. I have figured out what to look for by the way, basically one rating looks funny. What normally happens is that one will go up and the others go down and it could be up to 10 points on one and spread across the others. If you stare at them long enough you can figure out which ones will go down and which ones will go up. Then you have to decide how bad it will hurt him.

With the college players for the most part, they had been a little fuzzy but nothing to get excited about being a bad pick. So I looked closely at my top rated pick on the board and shook my head, a college player with an inflated overall. I couldn't believe it myself. I thought to myself that it can't be true, maybe they made it more fuzzy all of a sudden. So off I go looking for identical players and found several in my top 25 that were actually better but their overalls were where they should be. My thought was to leave it alone and he might fall to me at 25 which is about right actually, doubtful but a thought anyway, hmm wait, that is what happened last year. The way it stands, if I get my first pick the way I have it now everyones jaw will hit the floor calling me crazy. Of course I have been known to set and think about the players and change the rankings right up to the last minute. For some reason though, I don't see it happening this time. So call me crazy already.

If you are wondering how players are described as inflated, it is like this. Starting Pitchers with a high Stamina without other corresponding ratings for one. Hitters is normally high power. They are suppose to change this, but I haven't seen it happen yet.

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