Sunday, May 4, 2008

Playoff Predictions for Season 2

And here's where it gets interesting. I think like last season the AL is a little easier to predict than the NL.

American League

1. Monterrey Sultans (AL South Champs)
2. Milwaukee Manic Maulers (AL North Champs)
3. Louisville Legends (AL East Champs)
4. Las Vegas Gamblers (AL West Champs)
5. Nashville Sounds (Wild Card)
6. Cleveland Skidmarks (Wild Card)

Playoffs:

Round 1:
Nashville over Las Vegas
Louisville over Cleveland

Round 2:
Monterrey over Nashville
Milwaukee over Louisville

ALCS:
Monterrey over Milwaukee

National League:

1. Toronto (NL North Champs)
2. Salem (AL West Champs)
3. Trenton (NL East Champs)
4. New Orleans (NL South Champs)
5. Fargo (Wild Card)
6. Norfolk (Wild Card)

Playoffs:

Round 1
Trenton over Norfolk
Fargo over New Orleans

Round 2
Toronto over Fargo
Salem over Trenton

NLCS: Salem over Toronto

World Series: Monterrey over Salem

AL West Season 2 Preview

The AL west was decided very early, as the Las Vegas Gamblers ran away and hid from the rest of the division, but were upset in the first round by Nashville. Can they do better this season, or will they take a step back? Can the Anaheim Chiles, Vancouver Fighting Moose, or Colorado Spring Chickens give the Gamblers a run for their money?

Las Vegas Gamblers (last season: 103-59)

Major additions: 1B Abdullah Huff (FA-Salt Lake City)
Major losses: SP Stephen Tucker (trade-Chicago)

Offense (last season: 3rd in AL): They have a plethora of young talent. LF Denny Moss (.315-61-152), 3b Wally Harvey (.300-37-122), IF/OF Jeremy Glover (.299-19-100), OF William Nomo (.269-39-100), CF Emmitt Yearwood (.289-15-91) and C Clarence Hartman (.272-23-72) are all younger than 28. The returning veterans are IF Tim Harding (.298, 60 SBs) and SS Eddie Linton (.310-12-57). Huff struggled in LA last season but could bounce back in the desert and win the 1B job.

Pitching (last season: 5th in AL): They traded Tucker for the long-term health of the franchise and they got quite a bit in return. That being said, his departure leaves an immediate hole at the top of the rotation. Doc Buhner will start opening day; he was in the bullpen last season and is a #4 or 5 starter at best. Louie Martin (10-14, 3.96) has the talent to be a legitimate #2 starter. Buster Charles (16-6, 3.57) is good in the middle of the rotation, but I'm not sold on Bum Brea (12-8, 5.18). Ernest Lee (13-4, 5.38) could be good at the back of the rotation. 23-year-old Gerald Thompson saved 39 out of 42 last season and should have another good season. They are couting on two rule 5 guys in Cole Rhodes and Luther Stanley, both of whom pitched in AA last season, as the only righties in the pen; Las Vegas coaches are hoping they complement lefty Timothy Wolf.

Outlook: They should cruise to another division title. The scary thing for the rest of the division is this team is built to be at or near the top for a while. I think the Tucker trade helps them down the road but hurts their chances of making a deep playoff runs this season.


Anaheim Chiles (74-88 last season)

Major additions: SP Roland Casey (FA-Philadelphia), RP Charles Trujillo (FA-Arizona)
Major losses: None

Offense (last season: 13th in AL): 3B Alex Vasquez hit 64 HRs, drove in 154 runs, and struck out 160 times. 1B Carlos Duran hit .285 with 37 HRs and 91 RBIs. These two pretty are the only givens for the Anaheim offense; every other position player comes with a question mark. Can IF Brace Kroger (.269-13-57), RF Roger Nathan (.263-11-68), 2B Chip Loiselle (.294-5-44), and LF Pat Takada (.247-9-43, 44 SBs) rebound from down years? Can 21-year-old SS James Dixon and 25-year-old CF Butch Swift fulfill their potential and get it done on the ML level? Can C Lyle Becker hit .310 as he did in less than half a season in the bigs, or was the jump from A ball too fast? Hard to say exactly what they'll be this season except for clearly not on par with Las Vegas.

Pitching (last season: 9th in AL): The story here begins (and all but ends) with Ajax Drabek. He contended for the Cy Young Award with an 17-5 record and a 2.64 ERA- he could have easily won 20 on a good team. Roland Casey is not the answer at the #2 spot. Andy Ramsey is a professional at the #3 spot- he doesn't throw hard but knows how to get hitters out but is not better than a 2 or 3 on a good team. Alberto Leon pitched to an ERA over 6 last season and Kenny Holmes was slightly below 6-don't expect much better from either. The bullpen is almost exclusively AAA callups- Alex Brantley will close and it's hard to gauge what the young relievers will do in their rookie seasons.

Outlook: They are definitely rebuilding and I don't see more than the 74 win total from last season- it could get worse this season. They do have some young talent and could either trade Drabek for prospects or let him go for draft picks at the end of the season to acquire more. They'll be inconsistent at the plate and on the mound on days when Drabek doesn't pitch.


Vancouver Fighting Moose (69-93 last season)

Major additions: None
Major losses: P Max Knowles (trade-Ottawa)

Offense (last season: 14th in AL): Like Anaheim, they have few consistent offensive threats. Marcus Witte (.285-21-83) and the Kobe Connection of Phil Nakajima (.303-16-78) and Richard Takahashi (.282-28-98) are the only players vaguely resembling offensive threats. Amp Petrick drove in 73 and will be hard-pressed to repeat. There's nothing wrong with having one or two defensive players in a lineup, but Vancouver has more like 3-5: that's too many.

Pitching (last season: 12th in AL): Yuniesky Bennett (10-15, 5.25) is the ace. That's all you need to know. But I'll keep going anyway. Jerry Terry (12-10, 4.02) needs to find a consistent out pitch to really take it to the next level- don't think he will and will settle into a #4 or 5 type starter masquarading as a #2 or 3. Sun Chang had an ERA over 6 in AAA last season, so he's the #3 starter. Ron Lewis (8-15, 6.26) is the #4 starter and Darrin Greene comes out of the bullpen to be the last starter. Yikes. The closer (for now, as he's on the trade block) is Dave Stewart, who is a solid closer. Rocky Barfield and Trent Bollea looked good in relief, but their innings were limited and it remains to be seen how they'll handle the additional workload- the rest of the bullpen is shoddy.

Outlook: They should consider this season a success if they develop their young guys both in the ML and in the minors, don't finish in the basement, and avoid 100 losses.


Colorado Spring Chickens (63-99 last season)

Major additions: RP Cesar Moreno (FA-Trenton)
Major losses: SS Scot Hutton (trade-Fargo)

Offense (last season: 10th in AL): Always tough when you lose your best offensive weapon, as the Chickens did in Hutton. There wasn't enough depth behind him when he was here. LF Alex Lim (.310-25-88), C Sid Dillon (.275-24-78 with Philadelphia and C.S.), SS Jay Walker (.312-18-68) and OF J.D. Wingo (.240-40-119) are the best of what's left. CF Raymond Rucker has big-time speed but his bat won't catch up and 2B Tony Reyes has to hit better than .243, If 1B Jung Zheng can hit like he did in AAA and Reyes bounces back, this won't be a bad lineup.

Pitching (last season: 11th in AL): The rotation is shaky. The good news with Alex Lee is he won 11 games last season. The bad news is he lost 18, had an ERA over 6, and will start opening day this year. Sammy Aquino was 8-13 but with an ERA of 4.50- he's serviceable. 3rd starter Ivan Castilla is a rookie and probably has the most pure talent on the staff- it just may take him some time to figure things out, but look for good things from him in the future. Miller Monroe can look forward to another year of getting shelled, and Javy Gonzalez is inconsistent. In the bullpen, Joel King is unproven as the closer and Tony Matos makes $7 million to set up. Daryle Ramirez and F.P. Anderson were good in AAA, but there aren't any other proven bullpen guys: Cesar Moreno was inconsistent for the Traffic last season.

Outlook: It's a 3-way race for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in the West, as Las Vegas can start printing playoff tickets now. I think Anaheim, as long as they keep Drabek, have a leg up for 2nd, so it's the Chickens vs. the Moose for 3rd. I'll take the Chickens for 3rd in what amounts to a coin flip- they should focus on getting younger talent, however.

AL South Season 2 Preview

Our tour of the AL takes us to the South, where the AL champs reside. The Monterrey Sultans gave the Salem Sacrifices all they could handle in the World Series before falling short- can they take the title this season? Or will Nashville, their ALCS opponents from last season, leap frog the Mexican madmen? Can Durham or Wichita surprise this season? We start with the defending AL champs.

Monterrey Sultans (105-57 last season)

Major additions: 2B Marcus Reboulet (trade-New Orleans), SP Max Jacquez (FA-Louisville)
Major losses: SP York Watson (trade-Chicago)

Offense (last season: 1st in AL): The scoreboard operator had better be ready. Any team that can trot out CF Dewayne Castillo (.290-30-99 , 111 runs), Cody Lincoln (.310-60-145, 139 runs with Vancouver and Monterrey), SS Moose Coleman (.338-44-132, 119 runs), Reboulet (.331-21-115), and Haywood McDonald (.283-48-124, 113 runs) has plenty of firepower. IF/OF Howard Murray hit 20 home runs and could find himself as the leadoff hitter, as he had an OBP of .375 and 29 steals. 1B Felipe Ortiz pitched in with .302-31-94. Tavarez, Coleman, Lincoln, and McDonald are all 30 or older, so some of their key components could start to see some decline. Nonetheless, this is a scary lineup for any pitcher.

Pitching (last season: 1st in AL): They essentially traded Jacquez for Watson in the rotation. Jacquez (6-9, 6.26) has talent but underachieved last season for the Legends; he'll start Opening Day, so the Sultan coaches have a lot of faith in him. I'm not sure he's an ace, but they do have Philip Allensworth (20-5, 3.54) behind him, Albert Gonzalez (22-4, 3.18) at the #3 spot, and R.J. Toca (10-5, 4.71) coming off major elbow sugery and hoping to return to form. When Dennys Fox (13-9, 3.98) is your #5 starter you have a deep rotation. The closer position could be this team's only weakness; Larry Stokes blew 9 of 47 saves and had an ERA over 6. The setup roles are in better shape. Vern Baez was solid in setup work and would have been great if not for giving up 18 home runs and Parker Mashore, Ed Adkins, Guy Moore, and Daryle Ramsey all had ERAs under 4.

Outlook: They would have to be the odds-on favorite to win the World Series if they had a reliable closer. Stokes has the talent to get it done, but if he doesn't, expect the Sultans to make a move. They should make the playoffs easily and probably will win the division, but that's not going to be good enough for Monterrey fans. I think they figure out the closer role and return to the Series.


Nashville Sounds (94-68 last season)

Major additions: P Barney Adams (FA-Philadelphia)
Major losses: None

Offense (last season: 7th in AL): MVP Gregg Black (.385-50-161, 145 runs, 38 SBs) had a monster season and at 30, shouldn't be slowing down much anytime soon. He's supported in the middle of the lineup by 3B Bud Klein (.292-30-110 with Chicago and Nashville), LF Paxton Forrest (.321-36-125, 38 SBs), and SS Louie James (.298-12-80). 1B Midre Santiago and RF Kris Clinton each drove in 100 runs . Daryl Lyons (.267-10-39) and/or Kerry Kydd (.290-16-54) has to step up to provide more depth.

Pitching (last season: 6th in AL): A lot like the lineup in the regard that they are deep by most standards, except not as deep as Monterrey. Ham Bruske (18-10, 3.44) is the ace of the staff and fits the role. Larry Cole (17-8, 4.16), Damon Thompson (10-6, 4.33), and Jesse Bridges (15-10, 4.35) are all solid ML starters. Miguel Gonzalez gets first shot at the #5 starter role. The bullpen is fairly solid too, led by closer Enrique Chantres (35 of 38 saves, 3.89). He'll have Dan Porter and Odalis Sanchez to set him up; Porter was good last year but may not be able to keep it up and Sanchez was awful. Long relief roles are being filled by failed starters.

Outlook: If the pitching staff holds up they'll be right there in wild-card contention again, but I don't see them catching Monterrey.


Durham Entombed Spiders (78-84 last season)

Major additions: SP Cookie Rijo (FA-Trenton), 2B Alex McClain (FA-Boise), RP Wilfredo Vizquel (FA-New Orleans)

Major losses: None

Offense (last season: 8th in AL): McClain adds some much-needed punch to this lineup, which also returns C/DH Ricky Beech (.277-40-96), RF Del Domingo (.288-21-92) and C/DH Peter Sosa (.293-48-104) as power threats. McClain and CF Dickie Knott are fairly solid 1-2 guys in the lineup. The left side of the infield was a black hole offensively last season, as SS Alex Adams and 3B Brent Karros produced more action at their local bank branch than on the field. It's a decent lineup that just won't be able to compete with the big boys in the division.

Pitching (last season: T-13 in AL): They have question marks all over the rotation. Lenny Durham, their opening day starter, had 12 wins but an ERA over 6. He'll be followed by Cookie Rijo, who has talent but had a 5.50 ERA for a very good Trenton team last season. Cristian Lyons (7.16 ERA) and Victor Alvarez (5.40 ERA) will struggle to get hitters out as the #3 and 4 starters. 25-year-old Lenny Bradley may be a season or two away from being a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy, although he did win 10 games last season. Banana Stein (32 of 38, 4.78) is a decent closer but not a closer on a contending team. Randy Ashby, Clay Bell, and Brace Ransom will be counted on to get key outs- they won't be spectacular but could be solid, which is all you need from setup guys.

Outlook: They won 74 last season, which is about right for this team. I like the addition of McClain on offense, but there's just not enough pitching: they might even take a step back due to their staff.


Wichita War Kittens (63-99 last season as Texas)

Major additions: SS Morgan Cain (FA-Philadelphia), 3B Willie Stinett (FA-Ottawa), RP Bo Hatfield (FA-Salem)

Major losses: SS Alex Li (FA-Toledo)

Offense (last season: 11th in AL): The loss of Li hurts, but there is some hope. Full seasons from 27-year-old 3B Wendell Durington and CF Hideki Nakano add to a lineup that returns LF Pete McGowan (.292-21-104) and C/DH Emmanuel Guzman (.357-49-134). Unfortunately there isn't much depth after those two and it remains to be seen exactly what Durington and Nakano provide. Cain is a good defender but nowhere near the hitter Li was and Stinett provides some thump but a lot of strikeouts as well. They'll struggle to score runs.

Pitching (last season: 10th in AL): If #1 starter York Burnett (11-10, 3.53) and #2 starter Mendy Blackley (14-6, 3.77) have repeat seasons, they'll be respectable. 25-year-old Paul Saarloos gets the 3rd spot in his first full ML season. Tiny Mayne was 12-10 with an ERA under 4; it might be a little much to ask for him to repeat that. Edgar Park had an ERA of 6.99 between Trenton and Texas, and that will have to come down. In the bullpen, Bo Hatfield struggled all season but still earned a ring with Salem, and now he's closing in Witchita. Setting him up could be a problem: last season Carl Rivers was shaky and Luis Garces, Gus Chong, Hod Little, Jamie Lawrence, and Don Tyson all could have been arrested for grand theft as they stole Texas's money.

Outlook: Nowhere near the talent level of Monterrey or Nashville, the question is can they stay out of the basement and beat out Durham? It will be close, and I'd give the slight edge to Witchita in the race for 3rd as their starting pitching is more consistent.

Top 100 Prospects in The Bigs - Season 2

TOP 100 Prospects In The Bigs

Starting pitching in the minors does not look short in the Bigs for Season 2. Forty-one of the top 106 prospects in the league were starting pitchers with another 12 at the closer position. Over 40% of the top 105 were at the AAA level and you can see the breakdown in the table below. It was Monterrey that claimed the most spots in the list with 7 followed by Durham, Ottawa, Salt Lake City, Toledo and Trenton with 6 . I have included a mini statline which has the key ratings in judging a player. I also took into account the most under-rated rating in HBD, durability. Baserunning and speed also increased the players rating slightly. If the health was below 55 or so there was a slight decrease in the players' rating as well. Makeup also played a minor role. Good/great defense also made a significant difference.

LEVELCOUNT

AAA

43

AA

22

HI-A

19

LO-A

15

R

7

ABREV:MEANING

c

contact

p

power

i

batting eye

s

stamina

++++

> 90 pitch rating

+++

70-89 pitch rating

++

55-69 pitch rating

+

40-54 pitch rating

glove

overall defense

POSCOUNT
SP

41

2B

13

CP

12

OF

12

SS

11

C

8

1B

5

3B

4


RANKPLAYERPOSLVLRATINGFRAPROJNOTES
1.Sean Simpson2BAAA9.65CHI97c72, p86, 94/100 splits, i74, B glove
2.Amp PalmerSSR9.6LOU94c81, p75, 84/74 splits, i73, A glove
3.Matt SkinnerCPR9.3WIC87s33, 96/94 splits,2+++1+, 93 control
4.Fred CarterSPAAA9.25ATL86s83, 82/86 splits,1+++3++1+, 97 control
5.Alex SamuelSPAA9.25DUR81s64, 93/100 splits ,3+++1+, 90 control
6.Hipolito MaradonaSPHI-A9.2LOU91s93,73/83 splits, 3+++1+, 100 control
7.Alex JavierCPHI-A9.0FAR85s34, 95/89 splits, 1++++1+++, 84 control
8.Che BongSSLO-A8.8SLC89c83, p66, 67/91 splits, i75,B+ glove
9.Luther BrushSPAAA8.7MNT89s100, 71/83 splits, 1++++2+++2++1+, 87 control
10.Vic JamesOFR8.7SLC86c100, p72, 69/94 splits, i74,C-- glove
11.Jocko KeatsSPAAA8.65MNT82s81,86/83 splits, 1+++3++1+, 87 control
12.Jack Hunt2BLO-A8.6VAN91c77, p86, 72/76 splits, i87,C++ glove
13.Mateo BatistaSPHI-A8.6ANA83s78, 81/89 splits, 1++++1++2+, 92 control
14.Tony StiebCHI-A8.6NAS89c100, p63, 85/88 splits, i61,C+ glove
15.Lloyd FreelCPLO-A8.6OTT77s53, 70/90 splits, 1++++2+++2++1+, 96 control
16.Ismael Polanco1BHI-A8.55LOU78c89, p85, 73/75 splits, i70,D glove
17.Albie TorresSSAAA8.55N.O.87c71, p82, 77/81 splits, i73, B++ glove
18.Trever Russell2BAAA8.5MNT84c92, p90, 70/60 splits, i77,C-- glove
19.Steve BakoCFAAA8.45VAN83c73, p65, 83/69 splits, i68, B glove
20.Lonny GatesSPHI-A8.45HOU81s76, 74/94 splits, 1++++2+++1+, 94 control
21.Placido Sanchez2BLO-A8.45CHI88c100, p54, 73/65 splits, i86, B glove
22.Jason Walker2BLO-A8.45ATL89c86, p75, 76/71 splits, i72, B+ glove
23.Rico Guevara2BHI-A8.4TOL88c55, p80, 97/70 splits, i96, B-- glove
24.Louie BolivarSPAAA8.45TOL87s87, 75/65 splits, 4+++1+, 91 control
25.Marty LaneSPAAA8.4CSP89s89, 67/75 splits, 2+++2++1+, 93 control
26.Billy NationSPAAA8.4LV84s84, 79/72 splits, 2+++3++, 94 control
27.Oswaldo AstacioSPAA8.35MEM92s82, 87/67 splits, 3+++, 97 control
28.Daniel KochSSAA8.35TRE92c78, p80, 74/63 splits, i67, B+ glove
29.Paul TurnbowCFLO-A8.3TRE87c44, p62, 91/95 splits, i54, B++ glove
30.Mark OttCPAAA8.3TOR75s42, 89/86 splits, 1+++1+++, 87 control
31.Derrin Hernandez2BAAA8.3HUN94c63, p63, 98/81 splits, i73, B glove
32.Ed AllenSPHI-A8.3N.O.80s73, 64/92 splits, 3+++, 93 control
33.Tito MercedesSPAAA8.25CIN76s64, 90/64 splits, 1++++1+++2++, 100 control
34.Derrick MattewsSSAAA8.25MNT86c62, p59, 80/60 splits, i65, A-- glove
35.Henry CanizaroCFAA8.25VAN80c52, p69, 72/73 splits, i78, B- glove
36.Rob CepedaSPHI-A8.25SLC86s82, 81/78 splits, 2+++1++1+, 63 control
37.Norm EdwardsSPAAA8.25MNT77s68, 79/74 splits, 1++++2++1+, 90 control
38.Albert Martin2BAA8.25ATL81c75, p100, 69/64 splits, i58, C-- glove
39.Henry TurnerCFAAA8.25OTT81c84, p58, 73/60 splits, i62, B++ glove
40.Kennie HolmesCPAAA8.2CIN74s31,78/78 splits, 2++++, 100 control
41.Evan SmithOFLO-A8.2CSP84c71, p49, 91/81 splits, i82, B glove
42.Harold LewisOFAAA8.2MIL81c68, p95, 78/69 splits, i60, D glove
43.Sergio HaynesSSR8.2CLE70c32, p57, 52/52 splits, i56, A+ glove
44.Steve SweeneyOFAAA8.15SJ90c72, p70, 79/87 splits, i78, C-glove
45.B.C. StoneSSLO-A8.15ATL82c67,p61, 79/58 splits, i57,165bs,B++ glove
46.Dixie ReynoldsSPAA8.1HUN73s69, 61/81 splits, 2+++1++2+, 100 control
47.Stephen Mills1BAAA8.1TRE76c77, p79, 83/80 splits, i85, D- glove
48.Marino CoronadoSSAA8.1ANA84c89, p51, 45/31 splits, A+ glove
49.Christy CastilloSPAAA8.1MEM78s72, 74/62 splits, 1++++1+++3++, 87 control
50.Willie ScottSSLO-A8.1AZ87c35, p73, 90/85 splits,i65bs, B glove
51.Nick HernandezOFLO-A8.1OTT86c99, p39, 59/100 splits, i94, C-- glove
52.Will PiperSPAA8.05TRE75s83, 75/81 splits, 2+++1++, 80 control
53.Gerald Stargell3BAA8.05CSP86c72, p69, 70/68 splits, i57, B+ glove
54.Lawrence BlackCFAA8.05SLC82c54, p79, 62/46 splits, i70, A-- glove
55.Tony GutierrezCAAA8.05NOR75c67, p78, 97/81 splits, i92, C-- glove
56.Charlie WhiteSPAA8.05SJ90s93, 59/61s, 2+++2++--, 99 control
57.Pablo RojasCPAA8.0NAS72s23, 77/86 splits, 1++++1+++, 97 control
58.Nerio BransonSPAAA8.0MIL80s78, 61/68 splits, 3+++1++, 96 control
59.Brooke Teut3BAAA8.0DUR84c61, p75, 89/76 splits, i52, B- glove
60.Placido RomanoSPR8.0BOI79s87, 62/70 splits, 1++++3+++, 69 control
61.Rene AlexanderSPAAA8.0SLC86s87, c56, 61/80 splits, 3+++2++, 56 control
62.Kevin LowSSLO-A8.0HOU78c68, p39, 78/57 splits, i68, A-- glove
63.Coco HinesCPAAA7.95LV77s32, 73/75 splits, 1++++1+++, 92 control
64.Jimmie Williams1BAA7.95PHI78c81, p82, 64/88 splits, i68, D- glove
65.Quentin Fletcher1BAA7.9TOL75c69, p75, 96/67 splits, i80, D- glove
66.Hiram SpooneybargerCAA7.85HOU72c64, p88, 100/54 splits, i84, C- glove
67.Raymond Lamb2BAAA7.85TOL79c68, p52, 63/67 splits, i83, B- glove
68.Tony RowanSPAAA7.8OTT79s77, 81/74 splits, 1+++2++1+, 83 control
69.Greg NiemanSPLO-A7.8ANA71s60, 73/86 splits, 1++++1+++1++2+, 93 control
70.Hipolito SantanaSPAAA7.8TOR75s71, 68/74 splits, 2+++1++1+, 100 control
71.Billy SpencerSPAAA7.8CLE86s88, 73/71 splits, 2+++2++, 64 control
72.Orber HalterSPAA7.8ATL79s85, 82/73 splits,2+++1+, 80 control
73.Frankie LigtenbergCPR7.75OTT82s43, 82/61 splits, 1+++2++, 100 control
74.Tony EscuelaCAAA7.7HUN73c52, p96, 100/82 splits, i81, D- glove
75.Steve ClaySPAAA7.7CLE74s78, 75/80 splits, 1+++2++1+,59 control
76.Willie SierraCAAA7.7BOI74c80, p92, 100/64 splits, i78, D- glove
77.Rick AndersonCHI-A7.7MNT75c66, p78, 78/77 splits, i69, C glove
78.Mitch ClarkCPAA7.7TRE81s24, 71/75 splits, 2+++, 99 control
79.Carlos MartinezSPAA7.7DUR78s67, 48/59 splits, 1++++3+++, 100 control
80.Bobby Ray HooperCPAAA7.65N.O.76s34, 61/80 splits, 1++++1++, 85 control
81.Cesar BeltreSPLO-A7.65OTT71c47, p24, 61/67 splits, A- glove
82.Tito Martin2BHI-A7.65CLE78c71, p51, 88/84 splits, i88, C++ glove
83.Eddie MarquisSPHI-A7.6N.o.81s85, 66/61 splits, 1++++1+++1++1+, 90 control
84.Lucas WorthingtonSPHI-A7.6TOL73s77, 88/67 splits, 1+++3++, 98 control
85.Jeremi GantSPAAA7.6TOR84s88, 67/55 splits, 1++++2+++1++1+, 82 control
86.Eddie GutierrezSPHI-A7.6FAR84s92, 63/82 splits, 2+++1++2+, 63 control
87.Jimmie ColeSPHI-A7.5DUR83s100, 69/88 splits, 1++++1+++1++. 61 control
88.Jeff PearsonOFAA7.5CSP77c35, p76, 77/75 splits, i63, 169bs, C++ glove
89.Kenneth SchalkCPAAA7.45SJ77s35, 75/69 splits, 1++++1+++, 83 control
90.Orlando DiazSSAAA7.45AZ80c63, p79, 70/60s, i63, C++ glove
91.Vic RinconSPAAA7.4TRE75s76, 65/78 splits, 1++++1+++2++1+, 65 control
92.Ivan WebsterSPHI-A7.4DUR82s100, 60/63 splits, 1++++1+++1++, 81 control
93.Felix Pryce2BAAA7.4SJ83c77, p64, 58/58 splits, i76, C++ glove
94.George Spencer2BHI-A7.4ANA82c80, p75, 63/63 splits, i68, C- glove
95.Alex EstradaCAAA7.35ANA72c66, p75, 70/73 splits, C-- glove
96.Harry GuillenSPR7.35BOI75s70, 64/70 splits, 1++++1+++3++, 58 control
97.Michael GiambiSPLO-A7.35MNT82s97, 86/65 splits, 1++3+, 92 control
98.Vic MolinaCPAAA7.35WIC74s32, 80/71 splits, 1+++1++, 86 control
99.Chris LowrySPAA7.3NY82s95, 56/68 splits, 2+++2+, 94 control
100.Chris LangstonSPAA7.2TOL74s77, 67/82 splits, 2+++2++, 63 control
101.Oleg Greisinger3BAAA7.2BOI81c67, p58, 71/71 splits, i56, C+ glove
102.Achilles Parris3BAAA7.2PHI77c57, p66, 66/77 splits, i52, C+ glove
103.Marty James2BAAA7.25DUR78c58, p56, 71/51 splits, i87, B-- glove
104.Al O'ShaeCHI-A7.25CIN69c52, p73, 61/83 splits, i84, D++ glove
105.Brendan Taft1BHI-A7.25BOIS70c79, p72, 66/69 splits, i79, D glove
106.Tony DelgadoCFLO-A7.2PHI71c94, p29, 29/60 splits, i49, B+ glove, 179BS


Saturday, May 3, 2008

AL North Season 2 Preview

Last season the Milwaukee Manic Maulers proved themselves to be the kings of the division by winning 105 games. Will they repeat? Can Cleveland, who missed the playoffs by one game, jump into the postseason? Can Ottawa and/or Toledo (Pawtucket last season) be better than last season?

Milwaukee Manic Maulers (105-57 last season)

Major additions: None
Major losses: P Wally Lawton (FA- San Juan)

Offense(last season: 6th in AL): Just a step behind the other contenders in the AL last season, they are deep and talented. They'll be led by big-time all around hitters in CF Luis Martinez (.291-30-72), 2B Bob Malone (284-30-105 with Milwaukee and Las Vegas), SS Ray Buchanan (.266-30-78, 42 SBs), 1B Burt Stevenson (.313-42-115), and ROY candidate DH/1B Andre Eckenstahler (.340-47-133). RF Bailey Bigbie drove in 82 last season and rookie Ryan Snyder could be given a chance to get a spot in the lineup, which would make them even deeper. Red Small should hit better than last season behind the plate.

Pitching (last season: 4th in AL): They had some issues last season determining roles of some of their bigger name pitchers and still finished 4th in the AL. James Morton had an ERA up near 5 and still won 20. Vin Solano went from the bullpen to starter and is maybe their best starter. Graham Costello is 25 and could develop into an ace. Woody Hiller and Vic Chavez both won 17 last season and both could repeat that this season. Their bullpen is solid too, anchored by Quinton Hughes (39 of 40 saves, 1.45 ERA) and Buddy Titan; both can close. AAA closer from last season Julio Navarro will help set up Hughes and/or Titan and Glen Kelly was solid last season.

Outlook: This team is built not just to win the division, but to make deep playoff runs. They lost in 5 to Nashville after being the top seed: they're hoping history doesn't repeat itself. If their rotation is as solid as I think it is they could conceivably make the World Series.


Cleveland Skidmarks (89-73 last season)

Major additions: P Jacob Herrera (FA-Philadelphia), P Stephen Mercedes (FA- New Orleans)
Major losses: None

Offense (last season: 9th in AL): Not as deep as Milwaukee, but not many teams are. They will be led by CF Walker Guerrero (.274-34-114), SS Orlando Franco (.275-24-97), C Darrel Selby (.252-18-94) and 3B Hal Brinkley (.324-18-63). The rest of the lineup is filled with question marks; Frank Franklin (.255-4-42, $7 million) in particular must step up for this team to compete.

Pitching (last season: 3rd in AL): The staff will be led by reigning Cy Young winner Stephen Michaels (18-7, 2.57)- anytime you can run a Cy Young award winner out every 5 days you can win big. Carlton Fleming (16-11, 3.10) is a very good #2 starter and hard-throwing 27 year old Orber Marin should have a solid season. They're hoping to be the team that turns Pete Rubel around: he was 4-6 with a 6.02 ERA after being traded from Pawtucket (now Toledo). He can't get guys out and ironcially his last two years are at $17 million, as he could find himself banished to the bullpen just like real-life $17 million man Barry Zito. Fortunately the rest of the starters are good. Pablo Rijo will be given a chance to close, and will be set up by Vance D'Amico, Herrera (if he doesn't end up starting), Mercedes (likewise), and Tony Frank in what shapes up to be a good bullpen.

Outlook: They'll be in contention- I'd like them a little more with one more bat. But their pitching will keep them in it all season and I could see them making a deal later in the season to put them back in the playoffs.


Ottawa Naughty Kitties (73-89 last season)

Major additions: P Enrique Sojo (FA- Milwaukee), 1B Harry Silva (trade- Atlanta), P Max Knowles (trade- Fargo)

Major losses: SP Jim Arnold (trade- Fargo)

Offense (last season: last in AL): Outside of LF Pepe Martin (.315-21-112) and C Hector Borland (.288-31-89), there are no consistent threats in this lineup. Even if 3B Gabe Millard and CF Henry Turner hit like they did in AAA it's not going to be enough. I'm not sold on Silva at 1B, Jude Carlson, Buddy Mongomery were both awful, and Arnold Hammond stole almost 60 bases but gets on at less than a .330 clip. They were anemic last season and I don't see much changing.
Pitching(last season: 7th in AL): Better than the offense, but not terribly imposing. Ace Brad Clapp (10-12, 5.43) gave up 35 home runs last season. Benito Martin (9-8, 4.20) is ok at #2. 25-year-old Ryan Martin has talent, but got shelled last season at AAA- can he step up at the ML level? Miguel Park (8-8, 3.43) and Sojo (5-1, 3.80) both pitched well but in less than 130 innings and less than 100 innings, respectively- can they handle more? Closer Carlos Carrasco (33 of 34 saves, 2.15 ERA) was excellent in his role last season, but I'm not sold of Torey Fernandez and Jiggs Wiggings (who did have a nice season last year) as his setup guys.

Outlook: They may actually take a step backwards. There is some young talent but there's not enough here to contend. With all the moves Toledo makes it's conceivable that Ottawa could finish in the basement this season.


Toledo Mud Hens (52-110 last season as Pawtucket)

Major additions: 2B Peter Suzuki (trade-Toronto), RF Felix Fonda (trade-Monterrey), C Grover Becker (trade- Houston), SS Alex Li (FA- Wichita), SS/CF Eli Jacquez (FA-Toronto), SP Keith
Cortes (FA-Arizona)

Major losses: RF Rafael Ozuna (trade- Monterrey), RP Walter Curtis (trade- Salem)

Offense (last season: 15th in AL): I think for this team we can pretty much ignore last season's rankings, as you can see this is a whole new team. Li (.287-23-75), Jacquez (.289-17-93), Suzuki (.260-16-87), and Fonda (.271-18-69) join returning LF Bret King (.263-41-120 with Cleveland and Pawtucket) and C Mac Schalk to form a pretty good lineup. The moves put them up to at least the middle third of the AL rankings easily. If they all hit up to their potential it's possible they'd be top 5 or 6 in the AL, but I'm not sure that is going to happen.

Pitching (last season: 15th in AL): They'll be better at the top this season with the addition of innings-eater Cortes and a full season of Russell Newson. The bottom of the rotation has question marks, as Hayes Hill moves from the bullpen and Esteban Diaz has to pitch better than his 9-17 record and 5.74 ERA, but I'm not sure he can. Wilson Mullens isn't a great (maybe not even a good) #5 starter. Jared McMahon close 28 out of 34 in AAA last season and will get a shot at the closer spot in Toledo this season. They'd better get length from their starters, as they don't have much, if anything, in the way of relief pitchers after McMahon.

Outlook: They could improve by 20-30 games this season- I think they;ll be right around .500. Their offense puts them above Ottawa, but their pitching puts them out of the pennant race.