Sunday, May 4, 2008

AL West Season 2 Preview

The AL west was decided very early, as the Las Vegas Gamblers ran away and hid from the rest of the division, but were upset in the first round by Nashville. Can they do better this season, or will they take a step back? Can the Anaheim Chiles, Vancouver Fighting Moose, or Colorado Spring Chickens give the Gamblers a run for their money?

Las Vegas Gamblers (last season: 103-59)

Major additions: 1B Abdullah Huff (FA-Salt Lake City)
Major losses: SP Stephen Tucker (trade-Chicago)

Offense (last season: 3rd in AL): They have a plethora of young talent. LF Denny Moss (.315-61-152), 3b Wally Harvey (.300-37-122), IF/OF Jeremy Glover (.299-19-100), OF William Nomo (.269-39-100), CF Emmitt Yearwood (.289-15-91) and C Clarence Hartman (.272-23-72) are all younger than 28. The returning veterans are IF Tim Harding (.298, 60 SBs) and SS Eddie Linton (.310-12-57). Huff struggled in LA last season but could bounce back in the desert and win the 1B job.

Pitching (last season: 5th in AL): They traded Tucker for the long-term health of the franchise and they got quite a bit in return. That being said, his departure leaves an immediate hole at the top of the rotation. Doc Buhner will start opening day; he was in the bullpen last season and is a #4 or 5 starter at best. Louie Martin (10-14, 3.96) has the talent to be a legitimate #2 starter. Buster Charles (16-6, 3.57) is good in the middle of the rotation, but I'm not sold on Bum Brea (12-8, 5.18). Ernest Lee (13-4, 5.38) could be good at the back of the rotation. 23-year-old Gerald Thompson saved 39 out of 42 last season and should have another good season. They are couting on two rule 5 guys in Cole Rhodes and Luther Stanley, both of whom pitched in AA last season, as the only righties in the pen; Las Vegas coaches are hoping they complement lefty Timothy Wolf.

Outlook: They should cruise to another division title. The scary thing for the rest of the division is this team is built to be at or near the top for a while. I think the Tucker trade helps them down the road but hurts their chances of making a deep playoff runs this season.


Anaheim Chiles (74-88 last season)

Major additions: SP Roland Casey (FA-Philadelphia), RP Charles Trujillo (FA-Arizona)
Major losses: None

Offense (last season: 13th in AL): 3B Alex Vasquez hit 64 HRs, drove in 154 runs, and struck out 160 times. 1B Carlos Duran hit .285 with 37 HRs and 91 RBIs. These two pretty are the only givens for the Anaheim offense; every other position player comes with a question mark. Can IF Brace Kroger (.269-13-57), RF Roger Nathan (.263-11-68), 2B Chip Loiselle (.294-5-44), and LF Pat Takada (.247-9-43, 44 SBs) rebound from down years? Can 21-year-old SS James Dixon and 25-year-old CF Butch Swift fulfill their potential and get it done on the ML level? Can C Lyle Becker hit .310 as he did in less than half a season in the bigs, or was the jump from A ball too fast? Hard to say exactly what they'll be this season except for clearly not on par with Las Vegas.

Pitching (last season: 9th in AL): The story here begins (and all but ends) with Ajax Drabek. He contended for the Cy Young Award with an 17-5 record and a 2.64 ERA- he could have easily won 20 on a good team. Roland Casey is not the answer at the #2 spot. Andy Ramsey is a professional at the #3 spot- he doesn't throw hard but knows how to get hitters out but is not better than a 2 or 3 on a good team. Alberto Leon pitched to an ERA over 6 last season and Kenny Holmes was slightly below 6-don't expect much better from either. The bullpen is almost exclusively AAA callups- Alex Brantley will close and it's hard to gauge what the young relievers will do in their rookie seasons.

Outlook: They are definitely rebuilding and I don't see more than the 74 win total from last season- it could get worse this season. They do have some young talent and could either trade Drabek for prospects or let him go for draft picks at the end of the season to acquire more. They'll be inconsistent at the plate and on the mound on days when Drabek doesn't pitch.


Vancouver Fighting Moose (69-93 last season)

Major additions: None
Major losses: P Max Knowles (trade-Ottawa)

Offense (last season: 14th in AL): Like Anaheim, they have few consistent offensive threats. Marcus Witte (.285-21-83) and the Kobe Connection of Phil Nakajima (.303-16-78) and Richard Takahashi (.282-28-98) are the only players vaguely resembling offensive threats. Amp Petrick drove in 73 and will be hard-pressed to repeat. There's nothing wrong with having one or two defensive players in a lineup, but Vancouver has more like 3-5: that's too many.

Pitching (last season: 12th in AL): Yuniesky Bennett (10-15, 5.25) is the ace. That's all you need to know. But I'll keep going anyway. Jerry Terry (12-10, 4.02) needs to find a consistent out pitch to really take it to the next level- don't think he will and will settle into a #4 or 5 type starter masquarading as a #2 or 3. Sun Chang had an ERA over 6 in AAA last season, so he's the #3 starter. Ron Lewis (8-15, 6.26) is the #4 starter and Darrin Greene comes out of the bullpen to be the last starter. Yikes. The closer (for now, as he's on the trade block) is Dave Stewart, who is a solid closer. Rocky Barfield and Trent Bollea looked good in relief, but their innings were limited and it remains to be seen how they'll handle the additional workload- the rest of the bullpen is shoddy.

Outlook: They should consider this season a success if they develop their young guys both in the ML and in the minors, don't finish in the basement, and avoid 100 losses.


Colorado Spring Chickens (63-99 last season)

Major additions: RP Cesar Moreno (FA-Trenton)
Major losses: SS Scot Hutton (trade-Fargo)

Offense (last season: 10th in AL): Always tough when you lose your best offensive weapon, as the Chickens did in Hutton. There wasn't enough depth behind him when he was here. LF Alex Lim (.310-25-88), C Sid Dillon (.275-24-78 with Philadelphia and C.S.), SS Jay Walker (.312-18-68) and OF J.D. Wingo (.240-40-119) are the best of what's left. CF Raymond Rucker has big-time speed but his bat won't catch up and 2B Tony Reyes has to hit better than .243, If 1B Jung Zheng can hit like he did in AAA and Reyes bounces back, this won't be a bad lineup.

Pitching (last season: 11th in AL): The rotation is shaky. The good news with Alex Lee is he won 11 games last season. The bad news is he lost 18, had an ERA over 6, and will start opening day this year. Sammy Aquino was 8-13 but with an ERA of 4.50- he's serviceable. 3rd starter Ivan Castilla is a rookie and probably has the most pure talent on the staff- it just may take him some time to figure things out, but look for good things from him in the future. Miller Monroe can look forward to another year of getting shelled, and Javy Gonzalez is inconsistent. In the bullpen, Joel King is unproven as the closer and Tony Matos makes $7 million to set up. Daryle Ramirez and F.P. Anderson were good in AAA, but there aren't any other proven bullpen guys: Cesar Moreno was inconsistent for the Traffic last season.

Outlook: It's a 3-way race for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in the West, as Las Vegas can start printing playoff tickets now. I think Anaheim, as long as they keep Drabek, have a leg up for 2nd, so it's the Chickens vs. the Moose for 3rd. I'll take the Chickens for 3rd in what amounts to a coin flip- they should focus on getting younger talent, however.

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