Sunday, May 18, 2008

Are the 80s back? (Stolen Base Explosion)



There has been a fair bit of discussion in the forums about SBs and the value of catchers etc etc. Well, yes stolen bases are up, rather drastically in some cases. What’s the deal? WIS with its last update to HBD, has changed the SB equation/formula.

Firstly, let’s put some history here. Back in the early 80s there were fair number speedsters in MLB – Willie McGee, Rickey Henderson, Ron LeFlore, Tim Raines to name a few. Heck, the St. Louis team was built on speed. It wasn’t unusual to see the SB leader have 80-90 stolen bases in a year. Then during the late 80s & early 90s there was a transition, a number of players could hit for power & steal a base from time to time. Up until the mid 80s the 30-30 club (30 HR & 30 SB in a year) was a really exclusive club; with it only being done about 7 or so times (One player doing it twice – can you name him? Hint: Not only did he do it twice but once was in the NL, the other in AL). Well during this transition time, it was not unusual at all to see the 30-30 mark done by 7 players in one season!! Not to mention the 40-40 mark was done twice!!! Well, now the SB has pretty much gone the way of the Dodo in MLB. There are few speedsters around but they are far and few between; now to steal over 50 in a year is quite the feat. The game today in MLB is “Chicks Love the Long Ball” – all hail the HR.

So, in HBD can you be like the Cards of the early 80s? IMO, yep. There is a team in JAHA that is and my team in Riley will easily crack over 200 SBs this season. I’ve had a game where my guys stole 9 bases total and another two where a single guy stole 6-7 themselves!! In the last major update, they changed (tweaked actually) the SB determination etc etc. Well this “tweak” has caused an increase in thefts. To give you an idea of how drastic the increase can be; in Riley my CF Rolando Cruz, here are his past SB totals: Yr 4 64/72, Yr 5 60/67, Yr 6 50/56, Yr 7 80/89; this year 68 games into the seasons 51/59!!!!! He’s on pace to steal over 120 bases this season. His speed rating dropped 3 points coming into the year from 100 to 97; while his Base running Rating has stayed at 75. Note, my manager setting has been “aggressive” for stolen bases for all 4 seasons.

In real life, the pitcher is the main factor in the defence of stolen bases. If the pitcher can give his catcher a “shot”, then maybe they get him. But if the guy gets too big of a jump, no catcher will get him. I will not get into the other factors etc here. Just to say the pitcher is the key to defending against the SB in real life. However, in HBD that ain’t the case. Yes, there is a factor relating to whether the pitcher is RH or LH but that’s it (and it’s a small part of the overall equation). The main defence is the catcher!!! For the base runner his speed rating and base running ability rating factor heavily on his # of attempts and possible success. Also the catcher’s arm strength & accuracy are the major defensive pieces of the equation.

The thing is, in HBD catchers for the most part come in two extremes; either great hitters with marginal defensive abilities OR great defensive ratings but marginal hitters. Note, I’m not referring to my Pseudo-Catcher type here (the guy who s/b DH or 1B). Up to now, this hasn’t been much of a choice – offensive would rule for the most part. This “tweak” may force some owners to rethink their choice, as the “track meet” seems to be back! Also, owners before were not keen on guys with good contact rating, good splits, great speed and base running ability BUT low power. These guys NOW are worth a look and it would seem that their salary demands are less then the heavy hitter. Also, they seem to have better defensive ratings as a general rule!

Now I’m not saying this is the way to go and recommending you go out get the U.S. relay team. BUT it would now seem to be an option worth considering, especially if you’re in a pitcher friendly park; that makes the long ball more difficult. Though there should be a word of caution with this strategy, in HBD you can’t give individual base-stealing settings to each player; it’s an overall team setting. So you have to be careful with the manager setting; cause players who have no business trying to steal, may if you’re too aggressive! That being said, I like the idea of more than one way to win and this would seem to be an option.

2 comments:

acerothstein said...

Nice work!

gumbercules said...

It's not exactly the 80's all over again- at the 1/4 mark of the season we have twice as many teams on pace for 200 HRs as we do for 200 steals. On the other hand, Witchita's cracked the 100 SB mark already.