Thursday, May 22, 2008

The Gambler Draft Board

Gee, I am drafting 29th. I have drafted 29th a few weeks back and got 5 of my top 25 picks. The team I drafted, I figured would finish dead last in the Rookie League, but apparently I am wrong. They are not the best but only one game out of first after 30 games. Anyway, who cares about that, back to local. Looks like that I should be guaranteed three 70 rated and above players, as there are 69 of these. But looks are very deceiving at first glance. After rearranging and finding the players that fit my draft mold left only 29 players rated above 70 in the top 50. My chances of getting maybe 2 are good. I think some of the upper 60 players are better also. So here is a look of what my draft board looked like and what I did with the top 15 players listed and my thoughts.

1 Jordan Newfield, SS 91 estimated - 1st to 5th
Neifi McBride, SS 90 estimated - 1st to 5th
To me it is a toss up as to which SS is the best both are good, my chances of getting one..ha ha
3 Yogi Anderson, P 88 estimated - 1st to 5th
Very good, Cy Young possibilities
Willis Biddle, 2B 88 estimated - 3rd to 8th
Very good, can play every where but SS
Thurman Allen, LF 88 could fall out of 1st round..estimated - 17th to 23rd
Much more than a LF, major health risk
Jesus Amezaga, P 85 estimated - 8th to 15th
A good lefty with control and 4 pitches
Albert Cook, SS 85 estimated - 5th to 10th
Vacuum cleaner at SS, weak eye, bad bio
Garry Wright, P 83 estimated - 8th to 15th
Pin point fly ball closer. Bio is 1st round or nothing, he could fall, but doubtful, better needs
Pedro Candelaria, 2B 82 estimated - 8th to 20th
Very good all the way round
Bryan Christiansen, LF 80 estimated - 12th to 22nd
Weak splists
Jay Hegan, SS 80 estimated - 15th to 25th
Not a SS, but everywhere else
Warren Pagnozzi,P 80 estimated - 12th to 25th
Weak against lefties other wise good
George Lowe, CF 80 estimated - 15th to 25th
Very good, minor health risk
Lonny Hernandez, p 79 estimated - 10th to 20th
Outstanding long relief to 6 inning starter
Cliff Miller,P 78 may fall to 2nd round 25th to 32nd
Good closer with bad 2nd pitch

As you can see, out of the top 15, I only have one that could fall to me and I don't want him. So here is what I ended up with as my top 15 and I hope I get 1 or 2 even.

Neifi McBride, SS 90 Actual - 3rd
2 Jordan Newfield, SS 91 Actual - 2nd
I liked McBrides health and better defense over Newfields power. Chances of me getting 1 of them is nonexistent.
Lonny Hernandez, P Actual - 4th
I liked this pitcher best of all, control, splits and pitches. Chances are none.
Yogi Anderson, P Actual - 9th
He will be great also. Chances are none
Mark Bong, P Actual - 25th
He may be slow in coming, but will be a force. Chances are good, maybe 30%.
Willis Casey, P Actual - 27th
Not the best pitcher, but best starter left already. Chances are about 50%
Keith Simmons, P Actual - 74th
The last of the good starters on my board. Chances are 75%, this is probably the guy I get.
Jay Hegan, SS Actual - 29th
3rd best SS on draft board and almost as good. Chances are about 10%
Pedro Candelaria, 2B Actual - 11th
Willis Biddle, 2B Actual - 12
Donte Webb, 2B Actual - 77th
These 3 are better than number 6 and 7 , if my needs were not pitching. Chances of getting 1 is about 45%.
Alex Suarez, LF Actual - 24th
He is just too good not to leave out. Chances 15%
Sam Brumfield, C Actual - 15th
Vasco Lopez, C Actual - 28th
I have man crushes on these two. Have never seen 2 catchers like these on the same board before. Chances are interesting...30-60%..and they will both be snagged in supplemental or early 2nd otherwise.
15 Matt Pall, LF Actual - 38th
Not sure why I left him in the top 15, other than he can hit and the best 1B there is on my board.

Well there it is, my top 15, normally I get my first 4 or 5 picks out of my top 25. I do a lot of tweaking. But I only get one decent player in the next 5, but then who cares about those. I did something a little different this time and will see how I did. If I was betting on which one I get first would be either 5, 6 or 7 and maybe I will get 2 of them.

Analysis: I did a little more tweaking after I wrote this and moved a couple players up, good thing I did also, Hegan will be a great player, maybe not SS but 3B/CF at the ML. Simmons, who my scouts thought was great, looks like a bit of a bust. Wish I would have moved Biddle and Webb behind Hegan when I did it. Would have gotten Webb with the second pick and it would have been better. I even moved one of the catchers into the top 5 but that didn't help either as they both went before my turn. All in all the first round was fantastic, after that, things deteriated quickly and actually only got 3 out of my top 25.

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