Sunday, May 4, 2008

AL South Season 2 Preview

Our tour of the AL takes us to the South, where the AL champs reside. The Monterrey Sultans gave the Salem Sacrifices all they could handle in the World Series before falling short- can they take the title this season? Or will Nashville, their ALCS opponents from last season, leap frog the Mexican madmen? Can Durham or Wichita surprise this season? We start with the defending AL champs.

Monterrey Sultans (105-57 last season)

Major additions: 2B Marcus Reboulet (trade-New Orleans), SP Max Jacquez (FA-Louisville)
Major losses: SP York Watson (trade-Chicago)

Offense (last season: 1st in AL): The scoreboard operator had better be ready. Any team that can trot out CF Dewayne Castillo (.290-30-99 , 111 runs), Cody Lincoln (.310-60-145, 139 runs with Vancouver and Monterrey), SS Moose Coleman (.338-44-132, 119 runs), Reboulet (.331-21-115), and Haywood McDonald (.283-48-124, 113 runs) has plenty of firepower. IF/OF Howard Murray hit 20 home runs and could find himself as the leadoff hitter, as he had an OBP of .375 and 29 steals. 1B Felipe Ortiz pitched in with .302-31-94. Tavarez, Coleman, Lincoln, and McDonald are all 30 or older, so some of their key components could start to see some decline. Nonetheless, this is a scary lineup for any pitcher.

Pitching (last season: 1st in AL): They essentially traded Jacquez for Watson in the rotation. Jacquez (6-9, 6.26) has talent but underachieved last season for the Legends; he'll start Opening Day, so the Sultan coaches have a lot of faith in him. I'm not sure he's an ace, but they do have Philip Allensworth (20-5, 3.54) behind him, Albert Gonzalez (22-4, 3.18) at the #3 spot, and R.J. Toca (10-5, 4.71) coming off major elbow sugery and hoping to return to form. When Dennys Fox (13-9, 3.98) is your #5 starter you have a deep rotation. The closer position could be this team's only weakness; Larry Stokes blew 9 of 47 saves and had an ERA over 6. The setup roles are in better shape. Vern Baez was solid in setup work and would have been great if not for giving up 18 home runs and Parker Mashore, Ed Adkins, Guy Moore, and Daryle Ramsey all had ERAs under 4.

Outlook: They would have to be the odds-on favorite to win the World Series if they had a reliable closer. Stokes has the talent to get it done, but if he doesn't, expect the Sultans to make a move. They should make the playoffs easily and probably will win the division, but that's not going to be good enough for Monterrey fans. I think they figure out the closer role and return to the Series.


Nashville Sounds (94-68 last season)

Major additions: P Barney Adams (FA-Philadelphia)
Major losses: None

Offense (last season: 7th in AL): MVP Gregg Black (.385-50-161, 145 runs, 38 SBs) had a monster season and at 30, shouldn't be slowing down much anytime soon. He's supported in the middle of the lineup by 3B Bud Klein (.292-30-110 with Chicago and Nashville), LF Paxton Forrest (.321-36-125, 38 SBs), and SS Louie James (.298-12-80). 1B Midre Santiago and RF Kris Clinton each drove in 100 runs . Daryl Lyons (.267-10-39) and/or Kerry Kydd (.290-16-54) has to step up to provide more depth.

Pitching (last season: 6th in AL): A lot like the lineup in the regard that they are deep by most standards, except not as deep as Monterrey. Ham Bruske (18-10, 3.44) is the ace of the staff and fits the role. Larry Cole (17-8, 4.16), Damon Thompson (10-6, 4.33), and Jesse Bridges (15-10, 4.35) are all solid ML starters. Miguel Gonzalez gets first shot at the #5 starter role. The bullpen is fairly solid too, led by closer Enrique Chantres (35 of 38 saves, 3.89). He'll have Dan Porter and Odalis Sanchez to set him up; Porter was good last year but may not be able to keep it up and Sanchez was awful. Long relief roles are being filled by failed starters.

Outlook: If the pitching staff holds up they'll be right there in wild-card contention again, but I don't see them catching Monterrey.


Durham Entombed Spiders (78-84 last season)

Major additions: SP Cookie Rijo (FA-Trenton), 2B Alex McClain (FA-Boise), RP Wilfredo Vizquel (FA-New Orleans)

Major losses: None

Offense (last season: 8th in AL): McClain adds some much-needed punch to this lineup, which also returns C/DH Ricky Beech (.277-40-96), RF Del Domingo (.288-21-92) and C/DH Peter Sosa (.293-48-104) as power threats. McClain and CF Dickie Knott are fairly solid 1-2 guys in the lineup. The left side of the infield was a black hole offensively last season, as SS Alex Adams and 3B Brent Karros produced more action at their local bank branch than on the field. It's a decent lineup that just won't be able to compete with the big boys in the division.

Pitching (last season: T-13 in AL): They have question marks all over the rotation. Lenny Durham, their opening day starter, had 12 wins but an ERA over 6. He'll be followed by Cookie Rijo, who has talent but had a 5.50 ERA for a very good Trenton team last season. Cristian Lyons (7.16 ERA) and Victor Alvarez (5.40 ERA) will struggle to get hitters out as the #3 and 4 starters. 25-year-old Lenny Bradley may be a season or two away from being a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy, although he did win 10 games last season. Banana Stein (32 of 38, 4.78) is a decent closer but not a closer on a contending team. Randy Ashby, Clay Bell, and Brace Ransom will be counted on to get key outs- they won't be spectacular but could be solid, which is all you need from setup guys.

Outlook: They won 74 last season, which is about right for this team. I like the addition of McClain on offense, but there's just not enough pitching: they might even take a step back due to their staff.


Wichita War Kittens (63-99 last season as Texas)

Major additions: SS Morgan Cain (FA-Philadelphia), 3B Willie Stinett (FA-Ottawa), RP Bo Hatfield (FA-Salem)

Major losses: SS Alex Li (FA-Toledo)

Offense (last season: 11th in AL): The loss of Li hurts, but there is some hope. Full seasons from 27-year-old 3B Wendell Durington and CF Hideki Nakano add to a lineup that returns LF Pete McGowan (.292-21-104) and C/DH Emmanuel Guzman (.357-49-134). Unfortunately there isn't much depth after those two and it remains to be seen exactly what Durington and Nakano provide. Cain is a good defender but nowhere near the hitter Li was and Stinett provides some thump but a lot of strikeouts as well. They'll struggle to score runs.

Pitching (last season: 10th in AL): If #1 starter York Burnett (11-10, 3.53) and #2 starter Mendy Blackley (14-6, 3.77) have repeat seasons, they'll be respectable. 25-year-old Paul Saarloos gets the 3rd spot in his first full ML season. Tiny Mayne was 12-10 with an ERA under 4; it might be a little much to ask for him to repeat that. Edgar Park had an ERA of 6.99 between Trenton and Texas, and that will have to come down. In the bullpen, Bo Hatfield struggled all season but still earned a ring with Salem, and now he's closing in Witchita. Setting him up could be a problem: last season Carl Rivers was shaky and Luis Garces, Gus Chong, Hod Little, Jamie Lawrence, and Don Tyson all could have been arrested for grand theft as they stole Texas's money.

Outlook: Nowhere near the talent level of Monterrey or Nashville, the question is can they stay out of the basement and beat out Durham? It will be close, and I'd give the slight edge to Witchita in the race for 3rd as their starting pitching is more consistent.

1 comment:

acerothstein said...

Nice job gumber, nice insight about the closer too lol.