Saturday, May 3, 2008

AL North Season 2 Preview

Last season the Milwaukee Manic Maulers proved themselves to be the kings of the division by winning 105 games. Will they repeat? Can Cleveland, who missed the playoffs by one game, jump into the postseason? Can Ottawa and/or Toledo (Pawtucket last season) be better than last season?

Milwaukee Manic Maulers (105-57 last season)

Major additions: None
Major losses: P Wally Lawton (FA- San Juan)

Offense(last season: 6th in AL): Just a step behind the other contenders in the AL last season, they are deep and talented. They'll be led by big-time all around hitters in CF Luis Martinez (.291-30-72), 2B Bob Malone (284-30-105 with Milwaukee and Las Vegas), SS Ray Buchanan (.266-30-78, 42 SBs), 1B Burt Stevenson (.313-42-115), and ROY candidate DH/1B Andre Eckenstahler (.340-47-133). RF Bailey Bigbie drove in 82 last season and rookie Ryan Snyder could be given a chance to get a spot in the lineup, which would make them even deeper. Red Small should hit better than last season behind the plate.

Pitching (last season: 4th in AL): They had some issues last season determining roles of some of their bigger name pitchers and still finished 4th in the AL. James Morton had an ERA up near 5 and still won 20. Vin Solano went from the bullpen to starter and is maybe their best starter. Graham Costello is 25 and could develop into an ace. Woody Hiller and Vic Chavez both won 17 last season and both could repeat that this season. Their bullpen is solid too, anchored by Quinton Hughes (39 of 40 saves, 1.45 ERA) and Buddy Titan; both can close. AAA closer from last season Julio Navarro will help set up Hughes and/or Titan and Glen Kelly was solid last season.

Outlook: This team is built not just to win the division, but to make deep playoff runs. They lost in 5 to Nashville after being the top seed: they're hoping history doesn't repeat itself. If their rotation is as solid as I think it is they could conceivably make the World Series.


Cleveland Skidmarks (89-73 last season)

Major additions: P Jacob Herrera (FA-Philadelphia), P Stephen Mercedes (FA- New Orleans)
Major losses: None

Offense (last season: 9th in AL): Not as deep as Milwaukee, but not many teams are. They will be led by CF Walker Guerrero (.274-34-114), SS Orlando Franco (.275-24-97), C Darrel Selby (.252-18-94) and 3B Hal Brinkley (.324-18-63). The rest of the lineup is filled with question marks; Frank Franklin (.255-4-42, $7 million) in particular must step up for this team to compete.

Pitching (last season: 3rd in AL): The staff will be led by reigning Cy Young winner Stephen Michaels (18-7, 2.57)- anytime you can run a Cy Young award winner out every 5 days you can win big. Carlton Fleming (16-11, 3.10) is a very good #2 starter and hard-throwing 27 year old Orber Marin should have a solid season. They're hoping to be the team that turns Pete Rubel around: he was 4-6 with a 6.02 ERA after being traded from Pawtucket (now Toledo). He can't get guys out and ironcially his last two years are at $17 million, as he could find himself banished to the bullpen just like real-life $17 million man Barry Zito. Fortunately the rest of the starters are good. Pablo Rijo will be given a chance to close, and will be set up by Vance D'Amico, Herrera (if he doesn't end up starting), Mercedes (likewise), and Tony Frank in what shapes up to be a good bullpen.

Outlook: They'll be in contention- I'd like them a little more with one more bat. But their pitching will keep them in it all season and I could see them making a deal later in the season to put them back in the playoffs.


Ottawa Naughty Kitties (73-89 last season)

Major additions: P Enrique Sojo (FA- Milwaukee), 1B Harry Silva (trade- Atlanta), P Max Knowles (trade- Fargo)

Major losses: SP Jim Arnold (trade- Fargo)

Offense (last season: last in AL): Outside of LF Pepe Martin (.315-21-112) and C Hector Borland (.288-31-89), there are no consistent threats in this lineup. Even if 3B Gabe Millard and CF Henry Turner hit like they did in AAA it's not going to be enough. I'm not sold on Silva at 1B, Jude Carlson, Buddy Mongomery were both awful, and Arnold Hammond stole almost 60 bases but gets on at less than a .330 clip. They were anemic last season and I don't see much changing.
Pitching(last season: 7th in AL): Better than the offense, but not terribly imposing. Ace Brad Clapp (10-12, 5.43) gave up 35 home runs last season. Benito Martin (9-8, 4.20) is ok at #2. 25-year-old Ryan Martin has talent, but got shelled last season at AAA- can he step up at the ML level? Miguel Park (8-8, 3.43) and Sojo (5-1, 3.80) both pitched well but in less than 130 innings and less than 100 innings, respectively- can they handle more? Closer Carlos Carrasco (33 of 34 saves, 2.15 ERA) was excellent in his role last season, but I'm not sold of Torey Fernandez and Jiggs Wiggings (who did have a nice season last year) as his setup guys.

Outlook: They may actually take a step backwards. There is some young talent but there's not enough here to contend. With all the moves Toledo makes it's conceivable that Ottawa could finish in the basement this season.


Toledo Mud Hens (52-110 last season as Pawtucket)

Major additions: 2B Peter Suzuki (trade-Toronto), RF Felix Fonda (trade-Monterrey), C Grover Becker (trade- Houston), SS Alex Li (FA- Wichita), SS/CF Eli Jacquez (FA-Toronto), SP Keith
Cortes (FA-Arizona)

Major losses: RF Rafael Ozuna (trade- Monterrey), RP Walter Curtis (trade- Salem)

Offense (last season: 15th in AL): I think for this team we can pretty much ignore last season's rankings, as you can see this is a whole new team. Li (.287-23-75), Jacquez (.289-17-93), Suzuki (.260-16-87), and Fonda (.271-18-69) join returning LF Bret King (.263-41-120 with Cleveland and Pawtucket) and C Mac Schalk to form a pretty good lineup. The moves put them up to at least the middle third of the AL rankings easily. If they all hit up to their potential it's possible they'd be top 5 or 6 in the AL, but I'm not sure that is going to happen.

Pitching (last season: 15th in AL): They'll be better at the top this season with the addition of innings-eater Cortes and a full season of Russell Newson. The bottom of the rotation has question marks, as Hayes Hill moves from the bullpen and Esteban Diaz has to pitch better than his 9-17 record and 5.74 ERA, but I'm not sure he can. Wilson Mullens isn't a great (maybe not even a good) #5 starter. Jared McMahon close 28 out of 34 in AAA last season and will get a shot at the closer spot in Toledo this season. They'd better get length from their starters, as they don't have much, if anything, in the way of relief pitchers after McMahon.

Outlook: They could improve by 20-30 games this season- I think they;ll be right around .500. Their offense puts them above Ottawa, but their pitching puts them out of the pennant race.

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