The Gambler Draft Board

Gee, I am drafting 29th. I have drafted 29th a few weeks back and got 5 of my top 25 picks. The team I drafted, I figured would finish dead last in the Rookie League, but apparently I am wrong. They are not the best but only one game out of first after 30 games. Anyway, who cares about that, back to local. Looks like that I should be guaranteed three 70 rated and above players, as there are 69 of these. But looks are very deceiving at first glance. After rearranging and finding the players that fit my draft mold left only 29 players rated above 70 in the top 50. My chances of getting maybe 2 are good. I think some of the upper 60 players are better also. So here is a look of what my draft board looked like and what I did with the top 15 players listed and my thoughts.

1 Jordan Newfield, SS 91 estimated - 1st to 5th
2 Neifi McBride, SS 90 estimated - 1st to 5th
To me it is a toss up as to which SS is the best both are good, my chances of getting one..ha ha
3 Yogi Anderson, P 88 estimated - 1st to 5th
Very good, Cy Young possibilities
4 Willis Biddle, 2B 88 estimated - 3rd to 8th
Very good, can play every where but SS
5 Thurman Allen, LF 88 could fall out of 1st round..estimated - 17th to 23rd
Much more than a LF, major health risk
6 Jesus Amezaga, P 85 estimated - 8th to 15th
A good lefty with control and 4 pitches
7 Albert Cook, SS 85 estimated - 5th to 10th
Vacuum cleaner at SS, weak eye, bad bio
8 Garry Wright, P 83 estimated - 8th to 15th
Pin point fly ball closer. Bio is 1st round or nothing, he could fall, but doubtful, better needs
9 Pedro Candelaria, 2B 82 estimated - 8th to 20th
Very good all the way round
10 Bryan Christiansen, LF 80 estimated - 12th to 22nd
Weak splists
11 Jay Hegan, SS 80 estimated - 15th to 25th
Not a SS, but everywhere else
12 Warren Pagnozzi,P 80 estimated - 12th to 25th
Weak against lefties other wise good
13 George Lowe, CF 80 estimated - 15th to 25th
Very good, minor health risk
14 Lonny Hernandez, p 79 estimated - 10th to 20th
Outstanding long relief to 6 inning starter
15 Cliff Miller,P 78 may fall to 2nd round 25th to 32nd
Good closer with bad 2nd pitch

As you can see, out of the top 15, I only have one that could fall to me and I don't want him. So here is what I ended up with as my top 15 and I hope I get 1 or 2 even.

1 Neifi McBride, SS 90 Actual - 3rd
2 Jordan Newfield, SS 91 Actual - 2nd
I liked McBrides health and better defense over Newfields power. Chances of me getting 1 of them is nonexistent.
3 Lonny Hernandez, P Actual - 4th
I liked this pitcher best of all, control, splits and pitches. Chances are none.
4 Yogi Anderson, P Actual - 9th
He will be great also. Chances are none
5 Mark Bong, P Actual - 25th
He may be slow in coming, but will be a force. Chances are good, maybe 30%.
6 Willis Casey, P Actual - 27th
Not the best pitcher, but best starter left already. Chances are about 50%
7 Keith Simmons, P Actual - 74th
The last of the good starters on my board. Chances are 75%, this is probably the guy I get.
8 Jay Hegan, SS Actual - 29th
3rd best SS on draft board and almost as good. Chances are about 10%
9 Pedro Candelaria, 2B Actual - 11th
10 Willis Biddle, 2B Actual - 12
11 Donte Webb, 2B Actual - 77th
These 3 are better than number 6 and 7 , if my needs were not pitching. Chances of getting 1 is about 45%.
12 Alex Suarez, LF Actual - 24th
He is just too good not to leave out. Chances 15%
13 Sam Brumfield, C Actual - 15th
14 Vasco Lopez, C Actual - 28th
I have man crushes on these two. Have never seen 2 catchers like these on the same board before. Chances are interesting...30-60%..and they will both be snagged in supplemental or early 2nd otherwise.
15 Matt Pall, LF Actual - 38th
Not sure why I left him in the top 15, other than he can hit and the best 1B there is on my board.

Well there it is, my top 15, normally I get my first 4 or 5 picks out of my top 25. I do a lot of tweaking. But I only get one decent player in the next 5, but then who cares about those. I did something a little different this time and will see how I did. If I was betting on which one I get first would be either 5, 6 or 7 and maybe I will get 2 of them.

Analysis: I did a little more tweaking after I wrote this and moved a couple players up, good thing I did also, Hegan will be a great player, maybe not SS but 3B/CF at the ML. Simmons, who my scouts thought was great, looks like a bit of a bust. Wish I would have moved Biddle and Webb behind Hegan when I did it. Would have gotten Webb with the second pick and it would have been better. I even moved one of the catchers into the top 5 but that didn't help either as they both went before my turn. All in all the first round was fantastic, after that, things deteriated quickly and actually only got 3 out of my top 25.

Are the 80s back? (Stolen Base Explosion)

There has been a fair bit of discussion in the forums about SBs and the value of catchers etc etc. Well, yes stolen bases are up, rather drastically in some cases. What’s the deal? WIS with its last update to HBD, has changed the SB equation/formula.

Firstly, let’s put some history here. Back in the early 80s there were fair number speedsters in MLB – Willie McGee, Rickey Henderson, Ron LeFlore, Tim Raines to name a few. Heck, the St. Louis team was built on speed. It wasn’t unusual to see the SB leader have 80-90 stolen bases in a year. Then during the late 80s & early 90s there was a transition, a number of players could hit for power & steal a base from time to time. Up until the mid 80s the 30-30 club (30 HR & 30 SB in a year) was a really exclusive club; with it only being done about 7 or so times (One player doing it twice – can you name him? Hint: Not only did he do it twice but once was in the NL, the other in AL). Well during this transition time, it was not unusual at all to see the 30-30 mark done by 7 players in one season!! Not to mention the 40-40 mark was done twice!!! Well, now the SB has pretty much gone the way of the Dodo in MLB. There are few speedsters around but they are far and few between; now to steal over 50 in a year is quite the feat. The game today in MLB is “Chicks Love the Long Ball” – all hail the HR.

So, in HBD can you be like the Cards of the early 80s? IMO, yep. There is a team in JAHA that is and my team in Riley will easily crack over 200 SBs this season. I’ve had a game where my guys stole 9 bases total and another two where a single guy stole 6-7 themselves!! In the last major update, they changed (tweaked actually) the SB determination etc etc. Well this “tweak” has caused an increase in thefts. To give you an idea of how drastic the increase can be; in Riley my CF Rolando Cruz, here are his past SB totals: Yr 4 64/72, Yr 5 60/67, Yr 6 50/56, Yr 7 80/89; this year 68 games into the seasons 51/59!!!!! He’s on pace to steal over 120 bases this season. His speed rating dropped 3 points coming into the year from 100 to 97; while his Base running Rating has stayed at 75. Note, my manager setting has been “aggressive” for stolen bases for all 4 seasons.

In real life, the pitcher is the main factor in the defence of stolen bases. If the pitcher can give his catcher a “shot”, then maybe they get him. But if the guy gets too big of a jump, no catcher will get him. I will not get into the other factors etc here. Just to say the pitcher is the key to defending against the SB in real life. However, in HBD that ain’t the case. Yes, there is a factor relating to whether the pitcher is RH or LH but that’s it (and it’s a small part of the overall equation). The main defence is the catcher!!! For the base runner his speed rating and base running ability rating factor heavily on his # of attempts and possible success. Also the catcher’s arm strength & accuracy are the major defensive pieces of the equation.

The thing is, in HBD catchers for the most part come in two extremes; either great hitters with marginal defensive abilities OR great defensive ratings but marginal hitters. Note, I’m not referring to my Pseudo-Catcher type here (the guy who s/b DH or 1B). Up to now, this hasn’t been much of a choice – offensive would rule for the most part. This “tweak” may force some owners to rethink their choice, as the “track meet” seems to be back! Also, owners before were not keen on guys with good contact rating, good splits, great speed and base running ability BUT low power. These guys NOW are worth a look and it would seem that their salary demands are less then the heavy hitter. Also, they seem to have better defensive ratings as a general rule!

Now I’m not saying this is the way to go and recommending you go out get the U.S. relay team. BUT it would now seem to be an option worth considering, especially if you’re in a pitcher friendly park; that makes the long ball more difficult. Though there should be a word of caution with this strategy, in HBD you can’t give individual base-stealing settings to each player; it’s an overall team setting. So you have to be careful with the manager setting; cause players who have no business trying to steal, may if you’re too aggressive! That being said, I like the idea of more than one way to win and this would seem to be an option.

Early surprises around The Bigs

We're only about 23 games into the season but now is a good time to take a look at some eye-popping performances around The Bigs to this point in the season. We'll preface all of these performances by saying "It's still early, but..."

Marvin Broadhurst leads the world in hitting and on-base percentage

Tabbed as a key addition to Fargo in the preseason previews, Broadhurst has been the team's offensive MVP to this point, leading The Bigs with his .433 AVG and .521 OBP. He's also been excellent behind the plate where he has thrown out 43% of would be base stealers this season, second in The Bigs to Las Vegas' Mendy Sung (48%). The offensive numbers will drop off (they have to, right?) but for $2 million he looks like the steal of the free agent market to this point in the season. The Dirtbags as a team are hitting .293 (second in The Bigs) just one season after being the worst offensive team in the world. They're not necessarily scoring a lot of runs (114 to this point) and that number is guaranteed to not be so high by season's end, but it's a nice sign of life from the bats that the Fargo pitchers surely appreciate.

San Juan Dead Bunnies showing some life

After finishing last in the NL South last season (albeit with a winning record) and predicted to be a seller at this year's trade deadline, the Dead Bunnies are off to a 14-9 start and appear poised to make some noise in the South this season. Buzz Linden and Jordan Jerzembeck lead the pitching staff which has shown improvement and has been the big difference this season. Last year's best offensive team in the NL is again doing it with the sticks, led so far by big numbers from Mike Henderson.

Kerry Barber can't be touched

Literally. Boise's Barber has posted a 2-0 record with a 0.60 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in four starts so far this season, including a complete game shutout of the Atlanta Bandits in his second start of the season. In fact, Barber didn't even allow a run through the first 17.1 IP of the season. Batters are hitting a mere .157 with a .186 slugging percentage against him. I would guess that these numbers will balloon up eventually (I know, I'm going out on a limb) but what a start for Barber.

Walk right this way Mr. King

Toledo's Bret King has been the definition of a patient hitter so far this season. In 23 games so far, King has an OBP of .443 and has walked 26 times (half the number of walks drawn by the entire Atlanta team). I don't know exactly what that projects out to be over an entire season (I was told there would be no math) but I know it's a lot more than the 115 walks he drew last season. This is one trend I wouldn't expect to fall off. Also of note, Nashville's Gregg Black and his moustache have walked 21 times this season making him the only other player to top the 20 walks mark to this point.

Cubbies making some noise. The Dragons? Not so much.

They finished dead last (by a lot) in the division in season 1 and have been predicted to do the same this year but if the Chicago Cubs aren't good, it's news to them. Fourth in the NL in runs scored plus a much improved pitching staff has equaled a 13-10 start for Chicago. They sit just two games back of Fargo in the North while last year's wild card representative from the division, Cincinnati, has stumbled a bit out of the gate at 10-13. Cincy's team ERA of 5.51 is the main reason for the team's poor start but with a solid staff led by All-Stars Manny Christians and Bernard Robinson we suspect they'll turn things around. Whether the Cubs can maintain their hot start remains to be seen.

Gerald Thompson the new Todd Jones?

The Gamblers certainly hope not but last year's AL Fireman of the Year hasn't exactly been on fire thus far. Vegas' 23-year-old closer, who converted 39 of 42 save opportunities last year with a 3.48 ERA, has an ERA of 11.37 and a 2.53 WHIP in nine appearances so far this season. He has however converted all five of his save chances, it's just that they've usually been pretty interesting. Vegas fans everywhere are searching for their heart medication.

Ortiz Hits for the Cycle

Monterrey 1B/DH Felipe Ortiz hit for the cycle in a 14-5 win over Durham earlier this week. He hit a bloop double in the 2nd and a 3-run homer in the 3rd off starter Cookie Rijo, an RBI single in the 4th off reliver Brace Ransom, and an RBI triple in the 8th off Randy Ashby. Ortiz's 5 RBIs helped highlight a 14-hit attack against the Entombed Spiders.

IFA signings

International Free Agent (IFAs) signings have picked up in recent days.

Bernie Espinosa, C Salem Sacrifices Deceptive at the plate, ok so he can see the ball coming but closes his eyes and swings for the fences, but behind the plate he will make mediocre pitchers look like stars and keep those base stealing threats at bay. A real good cheap find.

Luis Sanchez, C Salem Sacrifices Good hitting ability at the plate, behind the plate very average. The DH role is his calling with the ability of catching an occasional game. Though at 2M, expensive.

Mateo Guerrero, P Houston Riverdogs The first high priced IFA, maybe high priced is an over statement! At a whopping 16.8M, Houston hopes to have a future #1 starter, pin point accuracy, good splits, 3 setup pitches, an out pitch and a throw away pitch. Sounds too good to be true, has the ability to be the ideal pitcher, at that price he better be. Cy Young is his future? Will have to wait and see but somehow I don't see it, but will be a great one.

Moises Tavarez, P Vancouver Fighting Moose A good 3 pitch guy that you learn to hate in the end. Above average control and splits that will mow righties down with 2 very good pitches and a decent fishing out pitch. His biggest problem is Durability, a bad limiting factor. I foresee closer duty for him at the ML level once he gets there which could be a while. A good deal at 1.5M.

Jolbert Blanco, P Toronto Toros A closer/setup man that has control of two good off speed pitches. A good pick up for 830K even though he may not be destined for the ML.

Jose Nunez, SS Philadelphia Blue Jays A great defensive SS, not a great hitter but hits with power and could find the DL before his career is over. Over priced at 2.6M, but if the need is great not a bad choice.

Carlos Suarez, 1B Durham Entombed Spiders As far as 1B go, well above average. Can play all 162 games, a big plus, and hit for average, mostly singles and a few doubles. A steal at 852K.

Alex Suh, SS Colorado Springs Chickens Another great defensive SS with some limiting hitting ability, but will play his heart out all season long. Maybe a little over priced at 6.5M.

Ivan Alarcon, P Cincinnati Dragons A 3 pitch guy with good stuff, not the greatest in the split department. A little pricey at 6.8M

Juan Blanco, 1B Las Vegas Gamblers Was listed as a CF, but Gamblers saw him as a good minor league defensive 1B. At 830K, not a bad pickup for a team drafting late.

Santiago Bonilla, SS New Orleans Voodoo A good all-around player, only drawback is 110 or so game playing time. Cheap pickup at 5.7M

Junior Hara, SS Trenton Traffic A decent player, though outside chance as a starting SS at the ML level, more suited at any other position. Good pickup at 5.4M

Chan Jung, P Las Vegas Gamblers Solid minor league pitcher. Worth 390K, equates to a 5th round choice or so.

Juan Lopez, P Las Vegas Gamblers Another solid minor league pitcher. Maybe overpriced at 630K.

Harry Morales, P Toledo Mud Hens A very short reliever with exceptional stuff. Over priced at 2.5M in my books.

Willie Romero, P Nashville Sounds Another solid minor league pitcher. Good price at 730K.

Valerio Seanez, P Arizona Diamondbacks Middle relief to spot starter, 1 great pitch, two good pitches and a throw away with great control. Doesn't pitch to lefties well. A steal at 570K.

Orber Soto, LF Colorado Springs Chickens Better at 1B and a so-so hitter. Well over priced at 1.5M.

William Miyakazi, P Ottawa Naughty Kitties A little weak in the control department but with two good pitches out of four makes for a fine starter. At 1.5M not cheap and not overpriced either.

Tomas Johnson, P Vancouver Fighting Moose A good closer, little weak to lefties keeps him from being great. At 6.8M I expected a little more, so that makes him a little overpriced.