Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Season 7 Draft Review (Late but done finally)

Prologue: One thing I’ve always included in my overview is this “value” rating. It is by and large a ‘subjective’ thing and it’s not meant to insult etc. I base it on what I see his potential ratings being (remember I don’t see what you see), how much of a bonus was paid, at what point taken in the draft etc. So it’s possible to see 2 draftees who are pretty much equal in all respects, except one was taken 10th while the other was taken say 30th. The guy taken later will most likely get a higher rating. While both may become great players, getting a player like that late in 1st round is quite a steal. So I’ll give that a higher value. Also, the player’s potential position in the majors plays a part in this too. COF/1b/DH types are very common in HBD, therefore their value is lower than say a future MIF/CF/Cat (these are not as common). The same can be said for pitchers, guys who have the potential to be at the top of a rotation or ‘lights out’ closers are not that common therefore have a higher value.

1 Syracuse Simpletons (AL)

Russell Koehlert LF – Bonus $4.0 Million

This prospect is your typical COF/1B type player and Russell should become a solid MLer if he reaches his potential. The thing being is he really the type of guy who should go 1st overall in this draft? IMO, the answer to that is No. This very well could be a case where the new “fuzziness” of the pre-draft ratings played a part. No doubt he’s a 1st round pick but just not a 1st overall type pick. Still he should become a solid part of Syracuse’s batting lineup in a few seasons.
Value: 7.0

2 Charlotte Princesses (AL)

Ronn Lincoln SP – Bonus $3.9 Million
Here is a potential top of the rotation type pitcher. His potential splits are in a word SCARY. The expected stamina and control are also excellent. Now, his overall pitch quality should be just good for a #1 or #2 guy. Still in the overall analysis, if Charlotte can get this prospect to his potential ratings…Ronn could contend for some Cy Young awards in the future. Ronn was without a doubt in the running for the Pick of the Draft this season but got beat out (but not by much!).
Value 9.5

3 Philadelphia Phantoms (NL)

Travis Stein SS – Bonus $3.8 Million
With the 3rd pick the Phantoms take the best overall SS available in this draft. While there are several with better defensive ratings, they don’t have his potential at the plate. Travis should hit for a decent average, hit his share of long balls and even steal a few bases. At that to his decent defensive potential… you’ve got a SS that I think any owner would want on is team
Value 9.0

4 Boston Bambinos (AL)

Roy Walker SP – Bonus 3.7 Million
The Bambinos take a hard throwing left handed Starting Pitcher prospect in their spot. Overall there is only one slight downfall with this prospect; his potential stamina looks a little low for a starter. While that might stop him from pitching a lot of complete games; his solid splits with excellent control and pitch quality mean he’ll give his team a chance to win most of the time he takes the mound. Roy should become a solid top of the rotation guy if Boston can get him to his potential
Rating 9.0

5 Vancouver Golden Otters (NL)

O.T. Wagner 3B – Bonus $3.6 Million
You don’t often see a 3rd baseman taken this early in a draft. Mr Wagner’s potential definitely makes him worth taking this early. His potential Durability and Health push up his overall potential rating. That being said, it doesn’t mean his glove and bat aren’t worth being taken 5th overall (cause they are). O.T. should become a main stay at the hot corner for the Otters at the ML level in a few seasons. The only knock on his potential is his RH Split being just OK; still when you look at him as an overall package…there is a lot of potential in this prospect.
Value 8.5

6 Washington D.C. Blue Coats (NL)

Adrian Shipley SP – Bonus $3.5 Million
Another starting pitcher prospect taken in the 6th spot by the Blue Coats. Where in the rotation he’ll be, I’m not sure. His potential splits and control are all great, but his pitch quality takes a sharp down turn after #2 and his stamina is marginal for a starter. So time will tell where in the rotation he’ll end up but he’ll be a reasonably effect ML starter if he meets his potential.
Value 8.5

7 Buffalo Blue Cheese (AL)

Darwin Zerbe 2B – Not signed (Asking 8.5 Million)
If Darwin wishes to sign and IF Buffalo has the money… Darwin has the potential to be a pretty darn got ML 2b. The thing is, those are 2 big IFS!!! Going after a guy with this signability, is always a gamble. Even if they do wish to sign, their asking price is always high. In order to get a compensation pick next season if he doesn’t, you have to at least meet his asking price!! So, the final question..IF he wishes to sign, is he worth 8.5 million?? IMO, NO; his potential is no doubt very good but there were other 2b available just as good (if not better) at a lower price
Value (if signed) 7.0

8 Norfolk Destroyers (NL)

John Wilson SP – Bonus 4.6 Million
I was really happy to get my #1 ranked guy. I see him definitely a possible Ace of staff in the future. The only weakness is his potential LH split. But his RH split, Control and pitch quality potential ratings are all great. So his weakness versus lefties shouldn’t be a major problem. Now comes the job of getting him to these potential ratings.
Value 9.5

9 New York new york (AL)

Pedro Morales 1b/RF – Bonus 3.2 Million
Another COF/1B type taken early in the 1st round. Firstly, the owner has this guy presently on the inactive list??!! Not a good way to develop a prospect! Anyway, other than this guy’s fantastic potential batting eye & RH ratings and his potential defensive abilities that are above average for this type of player, there is nothing really remarkable about his potential. Again, I feel this is definitely a 1st round quality pick but not a number 9 pick (late 1st round or in the supplemental picks).
Value 6.5

10 Austin City Limits (NL)

Clayton Olson 1B – Bonus 3.1 Million
Normally I’d question an NL team taking a 1b/DH type player this early in the first round. Clayton however does make for a case for doing so! His potential contact and power ratings are a unique combination, though the rest of the batting ratings have potentials of just being okay. Still, this prospect could make for solid bat in the heart of Austin’s batting order in a few seasons. This would be an interesting pick to watch and see if he makes it worth pick
Value 7.5

11 New Orleans Voodoo (NL)

Boomer Nelson CL – Bonus 3.0 Million
What a great name for ML closer!! Well Boomer does have the potential to be just that. Great splits, solid pitch quality and excellent control (he throws pretty hard too) are all things you want in a pitcher. His stamina should definitely be that of a closer but his endurance comes up short. Still if the Voodoo can get this guy to these potential ratings, I feel they will be happy with this prospect.
Value 8.5

12 Boise Shadow Wolves (AL)

Malachi Clifton SP – Bonus 5.1 Million
With the 12th pick the ‘Dark Hounds’ take a pitcher who should be a decent starting pitcher but not a great one. While Mr. Clifton has most of what you’d want in an ace starter, his potential splits are just OK. This tends to mean inconsistency at the ML level. Though he should make for a good bottom of the rotation guy, if he reaches his potential ratings. The biggest question with this pick..price. Is a bottom of the rotation guy worth the 5 million bonus….
Value 7.0

13 Toronto Toros (NL)

Ricky Carpenter RF – Bonus 5.7 Million
Mr Carpenter is the most expensive prospect signed so far. When you look at his potential ratings he might very be worth it (maybe). His potential speed and baserunning ability make him a future base thief but his contact rating is marginal for a lead off type guy. Though his potential power rating, RH split and batting eye may make up for that. The other thing Ricky brings to the table is his above average defensive potential for the RF position. So as an overall package, Ricky may well turn out to be worth his asking price
Value 8.0

14 Oklahoma City Obese Supermodels (AL)

Erick Daniels 2B – Not Signed (asking 4.2 Million)
Compared to the other unsigned second baseman (Mr Zerbe), Erick has much better overall potential and is half the price! I would say management in Oklahoma City is hopeful they can sign this prospect. Erick would make for a fine addition to their ML roster in a few seasons. Solid offensive and defensive potential in this pick, I’m surprised he slipped to this spot, he was rated #2 on my list.
Value 9.0 (if signed)


15 San Juan Dead Bunnies (NL)

Russ Glanville C – Bonus 2.7 Million
Sure Russ’s potential pitch calling rating is marginal at best. Though is arm is definitely better than you’d expect from a guy who brings these kind of potential hitting ratings. These hitting ratings again the word scary comes to mind. Most catchers are weak vs RH, Russ isn’t weak against ANY pitcher. His potential power ratings as well as contact and batting eye, make for an overall hitter with a fantastic future in this league. If this wasn’t enough, his durability is also well above you’d expect for catcher. Put this all together with a relatively small price tag…. As side note, Russ was ranked 2nd on my list, I'm surprised he fell to the 15th spot
Value 10.00

16 Trenton Traffic (NL)

Mariano Martis SS – Not Signed (asking 6.5 Million)
Another one of these guy who are questionable to sign and asking a fair price. Mariano’s defensive potential is without a doubt gold glove material. While his overall hitting potential is just okay (his batting eye is definitely a concern). Still a guy with kind of potential in the field, a slightly weak bat is something you can overlook. Though, is all this worth the his asking price???
Value 7.0 (if signed)

17 Anaheim Chiles (AL)

Mike Lowry SP – Bonus 4.3 Million
Mike’s bonus is pretty high when you consider when not taken in the top ten of the first round. But looking at this guy’s potential…I’m sure the Chiles consider it a bargain!!! Mr Lowry has the potential to be an Ace of the staff. The only major sticking point… his health rating!!! It’s marginal and usually pitchers with a rating under 60, will get injured. Anaheim can hope he doesn’t and if he does it ain’t serious. It be a shame to see a guy with this potential lose it due to injuries.
Value 9.0

18 Scranton Janitors (AL)

Don Gibbons SS – Not Signed (asking 2.4 Million)
My scout didn’t see this prospect, so no way for me review this guy
Value ??????????????

19 Salt Lake City Shakers (NL)

Cy Brand CF – Bonus 4.9 Million
Cy is the most expensive of the first rounders signed this season. The thing is, is he worth the price?? From a fielding standpoint, I’d say yes. Cy has gold glove potential in the CF position. From a hitting point of view, that’s questionable. His splits are marginal for the ML level but his contact might make up for that and he’ll have decent speed on bases. He’ll make a fine additional to the Shaker lineup if he reaches his potential but I’d suspect he’ll at bottom half of the batting order
Value 7.5

20 Cheyenne Nation (NL)

Russell Walls P – Unsigned (asking 2.4 Million)
Another one my scouts didn’t find, so no review possible.
Value ????

21 Salem Sacrifices (NL)

Jimmie Lincoln RF/1B – Bonus 2.1 Million
Overall Jimmie is better than average for this class of player. Really solid potential splits and decent power. As I said a pretty decent prospect, with only knock against him is his slight marginal potential stamina. Still, if he reaches his potential Jimmie should put up some decent numbers at the plate in the majors
Value 8.0

22 Jackson Vipers (AL)

Matthew Damon CF – Not Signed (asking 7.0 Million)
Matthew is one of those very risky guys to draft. Most likely will not sign and even if he decides he want so sign, it will not be cheap! When I look at Matthew’s potential, I don’t he’s worth his asking price. Sure IF he signs and IF he reached those ratings he’d be a pretty decent MLer….but not worth 7.0 mill.
Value 6.0 (if signed)

23 Louisville Legends (AL)

Steven Sweeney SP – Not Signed (asking 8.5 Million)
Another one of those high risk draftees. And again he asking a for a lot. Also, like Jackson’s pick, I feel he comes up a little short on being worth his asking price. BUT not by as much as Matthew. Steven does have the potential to be a #2 or #3 starter (doesn’t have the splits for the #1 spot). The thing is, is his price a fair one for that??
Value 6.5 (if signed)

24 Seattle Killer Whalers (AL)

Vladimir Brown RP – Not Signed (asking 1.9 Million)
Apparently Seattle doesn’t have the 1.9 or the owner doesn’t feel Vlad is worth that much. If it’s the latter, I can’t I totally agree. No Vlad isn’t closer material (splits too low and pitch quality is marginal for the closer spot); still he’d make for a solid set up guy in my opinion. I think that he is worth his asking price. The real question though, is a set up guy the kind of player you want to take in the 1st round of the draft? I don’t think so
Value 5.5 (if signed)


25 Monterrey Sultans (AL)

Vic Sirotka RP – Bonus 1.8 Million
Vic is an unusual prospect, to say the least. His overall rating (potential) is the lowest I’ve seen on a 1st round pick. But that’s not to say he’s not ML material, because he is. His pitching ratings all say potential closer (Great Splits, Great Pitch Quality, Ok Control …); the one thing that keep from a full time closer role is his durability!! His stamina is that of a set-up/closer type pitcher but has the durability of 4 man rotation starter. He is not the kind of guy you can throw out there in consecutive days! Something you need your closer to do from time to time. Vic will only be able to pitch 1 inning every third days or so… This leaves me wondering what his true value really is. Sure when he pitches he should be a dominate pitcher but we’re talking a set up guy at best. Also, his overall health is suspect to boot……. Possible Injury prone set up guy for a first round pick?
Value 5.5

26 St. Louis Silly Nannies (AL)

Richard Hatteburg SS – Bonus 1.7 Million
With their pick in the first round, the Silly Nannies take a defensive specialist Shortstop. His potential hitting ratings are just ok, in an overall sense. While he should have a great batting eye, but for a great with just average power his contact rating is really low. I’ve found guys with low contact ratings to be inconsistent at dish over the years. One season guy hits 20 Hrs with a batting average over .280; next not even 10 HRs and struggling to get his BA over the ‘Mendoza Line’. That being said, his defensive ability could more than make up for his marginal hitting. Here is a potential gold glove candidate.
Value 7.5

27 Monterrey Sultans (AL)

Steve Buehrle RP – Bonus 1.6 Million
With their 2nd pick in the first round the Sultans take another short relief guy. Now Steve at least has the durability of a setup/closer type guy and he should have better than average stamina for that role as well. While he’ll have great control and solid splits; his pitch quality is suspect…. While think this is a better pick that their previous one, it’s not be a lot. Will he be effective at the ML level? I have serious doubts
Value 6.5

28 Houston Riverdogs (NL)

Gary Weems RP – Bonus 1.5 Million
Now here is what I’d expect from a short relief guy taken this early in the draft (for the most part anyway). Gary has great potential in all ratings except one… durability. He comes up a little short there (under 50). While this is a definite knock against him, the rest of his potential I feel makes up for it. While that lack durability may keep Gary from the closer role, he should make for fine set up guy at the ML level in a few seasons.
Value 7.5
29 Chicago Snake Tamers (NL)

Gene Terry SS – Not Signed (Asking 1.3 Million)
My scouts did see enough Gene to give me his rating etc. So a review is not possible
Value ?????

30 Fargo Dirtbags (NL)

Furio Diggins SP – Bonus 1.3 Million
Without a doubt one of the more interesting names in this draft. Furio is definitely a project for Fargo. But if they can get him to his potential, they should a decent ML pitcher in a few seasons. Now I not exactly sure Furio is starter material his pitch quality just doesn’t seem to be there. Still his velocity, splits and controls should make him reasonably effective coming out of the bullpen for the Dirtbags.
Value 7.0

31 Milwaukee Manic Maulers (AL)
Brian Williams 2B – Bonus 1.2 Million
For this late in the first round, this is a pretty good pick. While Brian will not be a superstar at the ML level, he will be an effective player for the Maulers. I think his potential defensive ratings come up a little short for a ML 2b (arm); still should be a good COF. His offensive rating are all okay, except for his power. The only downfall with this prospect is his durability. As I mentioned for a pick at this point in the draft, I’d say Milwaukee’s scouts did a good job
Value 8.0

32 Atlanta Bandits (NL)
Chet Seaton SP – Bonus 1.1 Million
With the last pick in the 1st round (before supplemental picks) the Bandits take looks to be pretty much a clone of the Fargo pick a couple picks ago. Some of Chet’s potential ratings are that of a solid starting pitcher, great control, solid splits, great velocity and he’ll be a groundball pitcher. Like Furio above, his pitch quality comes short and his health is a little marginal. Overall, this is a bullpen guy. I mentioned above ‘reasonably effective’, I’ve found pitchers with this kind of pitch quality to be inconsistent, some appearances dominant and others… they get shelled.
Value 7.0

As a final point regarding the 8 picks not signed in the first round this year. Remember if you don’t at least offer him his demands, you don’t get a Type D compensation pick next season!!!!

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