Monday, August 31, 2009

Take 5: Draft edition

Last time we looked at aginor's 5 favorite first round picks. This time, we look at the other end:

Who were aginor's 5 least favorite 1st round picks and how have they done?

1. Tomas Sierra, P, Cincinnati (now Philadelphia), #21

Aginor's take: Here is a pick that…. well frankly put, ain’t 1st rnd material IMO. He definitely will not be a starter (Stamina is below starter level & only 2 good pitches). Possible Long Relief, but I think he’ll be most useful in a set up role. He’s got the tools for that, if you keep his pitch count to a “set up” pitcher level. I don’t see him as a closer. So a setup guy in the first round? I’m not saying he will not be a ML pitcher, I think he can be; but a first round pick… nope.

So far: He's been at AAA for two full seasons and parts of two others that just about add up to a full season. So essentially he's been at AAA for three straight seasons. He's 26 and has yet to see Citizen's Bank Park without a ticket; he's yet to throw a big league pitch. Time is definitely running out on his career.

2. Dwayne Malloy, P, Fargo, #18

Aginor's take: If the Dirtbags can sign Dwayne, they’ll have a solid potential ML pitcher. Just what kind is a question. While, he should develop great splits, good control etc; but he has only 3 pitches and one is well below average in potential. The other two are average at best for ML starter (as his #2 & #3 pitches) but he doesn’t have a “go to” pitch. I see bullpen in the future here, both long & short are definite possibilities here. Unless it’s a closer, I don’t feel bullpen material is worthy of a 1st rounder.

So far: Dwayne was dealt to Louisville in season 3, where he currently plays. He's on the big league staff as a middling long relief guy. I doubt this is what his college coaches had in mind for him coming out of school.

3. Benny McDonald, SS, Milwaukee, #30

Aginor's take: Benny is not shortstop material, glove just wouldn’t cut it at the ML level. Even 2b is marginal, though his range could make up for it; 3B however is a possibility for sure. Though his bat isn’t quite what you’d want there. Sure he’ll have decent power but his splits are “average”, eye is only slightly above “average” and his contact rating is below “average”. I may be wrong on this one but I see him as future bench material, ML for sure but a utility guy.

So far: Has yet to make his major league debut, failing to crack what has been a stacked lineup in Milwaukee. To help make aginor's first point, he's put up the following error totals in his last three full minor league seasons: 77, 57, 62. Milwaukee has to find another position for him. In conclusion, it's very hard to say how this pick has turned out, because it really hasn't turned out yet.

4. Red Rose, SS, Louisville, #31

Aginor's take: With this one, I’d be repeating what I said with Benny above. Though Red should be a better overall defensive player than Benny; his bat will not be as good. He’ll develop decent splits and OK power; what hurts is his contact will be average at best and his eye will be well below that average mark. Again, I see ML Utility material here. I didn’t say this above; bench guys aren’t quite what you’re looking for with your 1st round pick.

So far: Exactly as aginor predicted. He's a role player on the Legends, coming in as a defensive replacement or a pinch runner, but not seeing full-time duty. I'd have to agree with aginor that you probably expect a little more than a utility-type player with a first round pick.

There's a choice for the last spot, so let's do aginor a favor:

5. Bryan Christiansen, LF, New Orleans, #22

Aginor's take: This is a pick I’d like to follow (if signed) and see what kind of hitter he becomes. Bryan’s defensive abilities will be the proto-typical COF. He’ll have great contact rating, hit for power and has an above average eye. BUT his splits will be well below the average. So can a guy with splits this low hit ML pitching?? I don’t know to tell the truth, so it will be interesting to see. MY guess…. A Fred McGriff type hitter – Feast or Famine. Though, his speed and base running ability might make him a candidate for the 40/40 club. Either way, I’m curious to see if he can be ML hitter.

So far: Hard to say. This is going to be his first full season in the majors- he got held up at AAA. He's already 26, so he's not going to improve by leaps and bounds anymore. He hit .256 in almost 400 ABs last season, with 22 HRs and 26 steals, so he does obviously has the talent. He's off to a brutal start so far, hitting just .196 with 2 homers.

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